Goleta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

090
FXUS66 KLOX 130349
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
849 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/742 PM.

Cool and windy conditions will prevail through Tuesday with a
gradual warm up and generally lighter onshore winds Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...12/832 PM.

***UPDATE***

An upper level trough will continue to move over the region
tonight through Tuesday, before swinging east of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main impact of this system on
Southwest California will be continued gusty west to southwest
winds over some areas. Wind Advisories for the Santa Barbara SE
coast and the Ventura Coast will be allowed to expire at 9 AM, as
will the Advisory for the Antelope Valley as winds are decreasing
some. Along the Santa Barbara South Coast, wind gusts are
currently slightly below Advisory levels but as the Santa Barbara
to Bakersfield gradient decreases through the evening and
overnight, believe that gusts will increase some with gusts to 45
mph becoming more widespread along the SW coast, although slightly
less confidence in the SE coast.

Extensive low clouds are expected across the coast and valleys
overnight, likely extending up the coastal slopes and east of the
Salinas Valley in San Luis Obispo County. The combination of
increasing onshore gradients and a coastal eddy will help to lift
the layer and push the clouds well inland. Drizzle or light rain
will be possible overnight, most likely over portions of LA
County.

***From Previous Discussion***

High confidence that a relatively strong trough for this time of
year will continue to drop into California through Tuesday before
departing, leading to remnant weak troughing and northwest flow
aloft.

The main impacts of this system will be the wind with advisory
level onshore to northwest winds continuing for southern Santa
Barbara County and coastal Ventura County as well as the Antelope
Valley into this evening where Wind Advisories are in effect.
There is a 20 percent chance that advisory level winds may
continue overnight for interior mountains and deserts prone to
northwest winds.

Northwest flow across the region will likely spin up an eddy with
low clouds and drizzle tonight into Tuesday morning. However, the
northward extent is in question, so we have the highest
confidence in low clouds with drizzle at times for much of Los
Angeles County, we have lower confidence for Ventura County.

Rising 500 mb heights will support a warm up Wednesday into
Thursday (highs generally 68-82 by Thursday, coolest near the
coast), focused inland of a shallower marine layer where clouds
may seasonally slow to clear each day. Weaker but still present
Sundowner and inland onshore winds will peak each afternoon to
evening, but should mostly be below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...12/225 PM.

Below normal confidence for Friday through early next week with
near equal odds of a repeat pattern like we are expected to
experience through Tuesday or weaker northwest flow aloft more
akin to what Wednesday/Thursday time frame look like with similar
impacts possible. The repeat performance would be windier, colder,
with drizzle or light showers, while the latter would be somewhat
warmer, drier, with less wind. Either way significant impacts
seem unlikely during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...13/0348Z.

At 00Z over KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 1200 feet with a temperature of 27 Celsius.

Otherwise, moderate confidence in tafs with potential for MVFR
cigs over most valley and coastal sites. Expecting any ceilings
that form tonight into Tuesday will be MVFR or VFR. Low confidence
on ceiling coverage or timing however, and will likely be
stratocu with patches of clearing instead of a solid blanket of
clouds.

KLAX....Low confidence on timing of ceiling return tonight, but
high confidence in MVFR or VFR ceilings. Another round of E-SE
winds are likely tomorrow 13-17Z, with a moderate risk of 10+
knots.

KBUR...Low confidence on timing of ceiling return tonight, but
high confidence in MVFR or VFR ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...12/221 PM.

Winds are slower than expected in developing, but still expected
to ramp up through this afternoon. Steep seas with widespread
winds of 25 to 35 knots will be building through Tuesday, with
generally hazardous conditions for most vessels each afternoon and
evening. Current Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings look
good. While some areas will see some lulls, steep seas will affect
much of the area.

Moderate confidence in forecast for the next 3 days...winds plus
or minus 5 knots and seas plus or minus 3 feet.

Gale Watch remains for waters south of Point Sal for Tuesday,
including the Santa Barbara Channel (west and east portions). 60%
chance of a lower-end Gale Warning needed. Decided to keep it a
watch as the winds are slow to develop today which adds some
uncertainty to tomorrow.

High confidence in improving winds and seas (heights remain
elevated but periods lengthen) Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-655-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
      evening for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Smith
AVIATION...Phillips
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Munroe/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox