Gaviota, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

216
FXUS66 KLOX 241344
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
544 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...24/157 AM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is expected at times for
southwest California into mid next week. Fairly widespread
light to moderate rain is possible late Sunday through Tuesday,
focused across the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...24/331 AM.

Very light rain will continue through early this morning for the
Santa Barbara South Coast and east through Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties. Totals for the past day have been highest for the
Central Coast, with 0.3 to 1 inches of rain at the low levels and
nearly 3 inches across the Santa Lucia Mountains (a typical area
of upslope enhancement). The Santa Barbara South Coast and Ventura
County saw around 0.25 inches, with most of Los Angeles County
receiving under 0.10 inches.

A slight chance of showers will linger through the day today,
however the region is overall expected to be dry. The next
upcoming system will bring on-and-off showers Monday and Tuesday.
Zonal flow in the upper levels will transport a weak atmospheric
river of moisture, focused on San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties (and extending to the north).

At this time, most of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties are likely
to see under an inch of rain, with much of Los Angeles County
under 0.5 inches. 1 to 3 inches are expected across Santa Barbara
and San Luis Obispo Counties, with 4+ inches for the Santa Lucia
Mountains. Rainfall rates are favored to be low-to- moderate, thus
no widespread flooding impacts are anticipated. The highest rates
are expected for the coastal upslope areas along the Central
Coast, and this is the area most likely to see minor flooding
impacts. There is some level of uncertainty in the the exact
location of higher rainfall, thus there remains a small potential
(10 percent) of rainfall totals double that of forecast for
Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

There are no significant snow or thunderstorms concerns with this
rather warm system. However some thunderstorm activity is
possible Monday morning for the coastal waters along Central
Coast.

The storm systems and cloud coverage will keep temperatures well
below normal for the next few days. There is the chance for a few
hours of sunshine today, followed by cloudy and wet conditions
Monday and Tuesday. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected
north of Point Conception Monday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...24/241 AM.

Confidence remains on the low end for Wednesday into next weekend,
as a result of uncertainty in the trajectory of a weak storm
system that may impact the region. There is about a 20-40 percent
chance of showers Wednesday, chances will be highest in the
morning for Los Angeles County. Thanksgiving Day there is around
a 10 percent chance of showers, followed by around a 20 percent
chance of showers Friday into Saturday. In addition, there is
still the potential for light offshore flow Thursday into the
weekend, which would lead to overall warming and drying trends.
Temperatures are favored to gradually warm each day, with higher
chances for sunshine than earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1343Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion, but
there were multiple moist layer up to 120.

Low confidence in nearly all TAFs this morning. There were many
individual cloud layers across the region, and conds may vary
frequently at TAF site this morning. In general, there will be
widespread IFR to VLIFR conds this morning, with conditions
improving to MVFR to VFR in most areas this afternoon. However,
there will still be local IFR to VLIFR cigs in the foothills
and mtns thru the afternoon.

Another frontal system will cause an increase in clouds in
northern areas tonight, with MVFR cigs returning late, and a
chance of rain by morning. S of Pt. Conception, a stratus or
stratocu field is expected to develop, bringing MVFR to possibly
IFR cigs to most coastal and valley tafs by late evening.


KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will bounce
frequently between flight categories this morning. There is a
20% chance that conds will become VFR as early as 16Z-17Z, and a
30% chance that cigs will not become VFR until at least 21Z.
There is a 20-30% chance that MVFR cigs will arrive as early as
06Z tonight.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will bounce
frequently between flight categories this morning. There is a 20%
chance that conds will become VFR as early as 16Z-17Z, and a 30%
chance that cigs will not become VFR until at least 21Z. There is
a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs after 08Z this evening.

&&

.MARINE...24/535 AM.

In the Outer Waters, high confidence in the forecast. Winds and
seas will be below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels thru tonight.
For Mon and Mon night, there is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S
winds in the northern zones (PZZ670/673), and a 40% chance in the
southern zone (PZZ676). SCA conds are not expected Tue-Thu night.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. There is a 60% chance of SCA level SE-S winds Mon
afternoon into Mon night. Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels Tue thru Thu night.

For the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, high confidence that
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels thru Thu night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for
      zones 88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Smith/Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox