Elizabeth Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXUS66 KLOX 181734
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1034 AM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/914 AM.

Skies will slowly clear today and a warming trend will start.
Even warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through the middle
of next week, but still 3 to 6 degrees below normal across the
coast and valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...18/922 AM.

***UPDATE***

We still have a deep marine/moist layer in place today but
the VBG sounding this morning was showing the tops down to around
4000 feet while the NKX sounding was still around 8000 feet deep.
To that end there is still some drizzle or light showers around
this morning, mainly in the foothills and mountains, and clouds
are solid across all areas except the higher mountains and
Antelope Valley. As the upper low near the NV/AZ/UT border
continues to shift southeast, warmer air aloft will replace the
cooler air mass and bring warming this weekend. In the meantime,
today should feature better clearing at least by mid to late
afternoon but with high temperatures still 5-10 degrees below
normal.

***From Previous Discussion***

Look for a big warm up Saturday as a weak ridge slides into and
over the state. Hgts rise to 576 dam. Skies will be sunny save for
some morning low clouds. SLO and SBA counties as well as the LA
and VTA csts will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming will the rest of
LA/VTA county will end up 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today.
Still. most max temps will come in a few degrees cooler than
normal.

Sunday will continue the warming trend. Onshore gradients will be
on the weaker side and marine layer stratus will be confined to
the Central Coast in the morning. Bountiful sunshine and a weaker
seabreeze will bring 2 to 4 degrees of warming to most of the
area. The csts and lower vlys will remain a few degrees blo normal
but the rest of the area will be above normal for the first time
in a while.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...18/309 AM.

The GFS and the EC as well as their respective ensembles are in
decent agreement and show the west coast under broad troffing
through the period. Hgts will slowly fall from 576 dam on Monday
to 572 dam on Thursday. There will be onshore flow through the
period, strongest in the afternoon when it will be moderate to
strong. Night through morning low clouds and fog will occur each
day across most of the coasts and with the strong onshore push
into many of the vlys as well. The SBA south coast will have some
local north winds and may stay clear. Skies, otherwise, will be
mostly clear through Wednesday, but will turn partly cloudy on
Thursday as some mid level clouds will move over the state.

Max temps will be similar to Sunday`s on Monday but then the
entire area will see cooling all three days Tue-Thu as hgts fall
and onshore flow increases. By Thursday most max temps will be in
the 60s across the csts and vlys or 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1731Z.

At 1658Z at KLAX, there was a 6900 ft deep moist layer with
multiple cloud decks.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs through this afternoon as
flight cats will continuously bounce between MVFR and VFR. Lower
confidence after 02Z. Moderate confidence in cigs at coastal sites
late tonight into tomorrow morning, but low confidence in timing
and minimum flight cats. Flight cat changes may be off +/- 4 hours
and minimum flight cats may be off by at least one cat. There is
a 30-50% chance for VFR conds to prevail tonight through tomorrow
morning at KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB, with highest chances
at KCMA. There is a 20% chance for IFR to MVFR conds at KBUR and
KVNY between 06Z and 15Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conds will likely bounce
between MVFR to VFR through 22Z. There is a 20% chance for VFR
cons to prevail thereafter through the period. Otherwise, flight
cat changes may be off +/- 4 hours. Low confidence in minimum
flight cat. There is a low (10% chance) for cigs 005-010 once they
arrive tonight. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conds will likely
bounce between MVFR to VFR through 22Z. There is a 20% chance for
IFR to MVFR conds between 06Z and 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...18/747 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Monday, there is a 30-40% chance of
localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northwest wind gusts
around Point Conception down to the Northern Channel Islands and
in the northern Outer Waters, with winds and seas expected to
remain below SCA levels elsewhere. On Tuesday, there is a 60-80%
chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance for
localized SCA level wind gusts this afternoon near Morro Bay.
Saturday through Monday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday, there is a 30-40% chance
of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across
most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel where there will be a 20-30% of localized
SCA level wind gusts this afternoon, and slightly higher chances
Saturday and Sunday during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...RAT/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox