Darwin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS65 KVEF 180907
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
107 AM PST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and dry conditions prevail through next week as
northwesterly flow persists. Periods of gusty north winds are
expected, with minor impacts possible in the lower Colorado River
Valley on Monday. There are some hints a potential pattern shift
towards the final week of January, but confidence is very low at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Dry, northwesterly flow continues this weekend and into next week,
with a shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners area today.
This feature will shave a few degrees off our high temperatures
compared to yesterday and spur gusty north winds in the lower
Colorado River Valley. Peak gusts in the Laughlin-Needles area this
afternoon are forecast to be in the 25-35 mph range. Breezy
conditions and increased waves can be expected on the local lakes.

As the shortwave races into the central US on Sunday, pressure
gradients in our area relax, resulting in weaker winds. Temperatures
remain below normal, with similar values to today`s highs. Our
reprieve from the north winds is brief, however, as a more potent
slider dives through the Great Basin and into the Mojave Desert on
Monday. Much of the area has a 50% chance of gusts between 25 and 40
mph, while the lower Colorado River Valley has 60-70% chances of 40+
mph gusts. These winds will created hazardous boating conditions and
strong crosswinds on east-west roads. Despite the enhanced vertical
mixing from the wind, a colder airmass will accompany this system
and drop temperatures another few degrees on Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

The primary forecast concern in the wake of Monday`s dry cold front
and reinforcing shot of north winds will be the potential for
Tuesday morning to be about 3-5 degrees colder than any so far this
season for southern Nevada and nearby zones. Widespread minimum
temperatures will likely dip below 32 degrees across most of our
desert zones...even in the lower Colorado River Valley around
Needles and Mohave Valley. The NBM now indicates a 60-70%
probability of a low temp of 32 degrees or below at Harry Reid
Airport which would lead to most outlying suburbs of the
metro area experiencing lows in the mid to upper 20s.

This cold snap looks to be brief as temperatures gradually climb a
few degrees each day Wednesday through Friday. Model ensembles are
in good agreement that a ridge along the West Coast slowly moves
inland during this period. It is worth mentioning that the medium
range model ensembles indicate another cold low pressure system
dropping down from the Gulf of Alaska next weekend and about 28
percent of the recent 12Z ensemble members dig this along the West
Coast and spin it up into a closed low which introduces the
possibility of precipitation across our region. The latest NBM
paints 20-30% pops across most of our forecast area late next
Saturday. Don`t want to get hopes up, but it will be worth
watching the next several days to see how atmospheric ingredients
come together and if the probability goes up or down for a
significant precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds following mainly diurnal
patterns are expected through Sunday morning. Overnight tonight
through mid-morning, light southwesterly/variable winds will
continue, with sustained speeds around 6KT or less. By mid to late
morning, winds shift to the northeast and increase to 8KT, though
there is a 40-50% probability for winds to reach 10KT, mainly during
the afternoon. After sunset, winds once again become light and
somewhat variable, before settling out of the southwest overnight.
VFR conditions will prevail, with a few passing high clouds with
bases around 20-25kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Terminals across the Las Vegas area will see winds
following diurnal patterns for most of the forecast period. Wind
speeds are expected to remain around 10KT or less at both KVGT and
KHND, though will be slightly stronger at KHND. KBIH will follow
diurnal trends, with light and variable winds tonight shifting to
the northwest and north and increasing during the afternoon before
diminishing once again near sunset. KDAG, similar to other area
terminals, will see light winds with speeds under 10KT following
diurnal patterns. In the Lower Colorado River Valley, KIFP and KEED
will be exceptions when it comes to wind speed, with gusty north
winds expected to redevelop by late morning and early afternoon.
Gusts to around 20-25KT are expected at both terminals, with gusts
diminishing but sustained speeds remaining elevated after 19/02Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with intermittent high
clouds with bases around 20-25kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Phillipson

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