Darwin, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS65 KVEF 112156
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
156 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A pattern change is expected to begin on Thursday as a
Pacific storm system makes its way through the Southwest. Plan on
breezier winds, colder temperatures, and chances for precipitation
Thursday into early Friday. Another storm system looks likely
Saturday into Sunday. The pattern remains active to begin next
week before settling down again by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday and Friday.

Tranquil weather is taking place across much of southern Nevada
and the southern California deserts as weak high pressure remains
in place. Mid to upper-level clouds have increased this afternoon
ahead of a Pacific low pressure system expected to impact the
region on Thursday.

Confidence has increased in regards to the timing and strength of
the incoming low pressure system. Model consensus has this low,
currently off the northern California and Pacific Northwest coast,
sliding along the Sierra and pushing into the Great Basin much of
the day on Thursday. By Thursday afternoon/evening, the base of
the trough looks to make its way through southern Nevada and the
Colorado River Valley resulting in periods of breezy southwest
winds and chances for precipitation. In regards to the winds,
GEFS, ECMWF ENS, and NBM guidances all suggest less stronger than
once anticipated with gusts as high as 35 mph at times near
Barstow. Elsewhere could see gusts of 15-25 mph throughout the
day. Gustier southwest winds could be felt along the southern
Sierra ridgeline, however, it will be for a short duration, less
than three to six hours on Thursday morning. Since the winds are
forecast to not be as strong, any Wind Advisories are not needed
at this time.

As for precipitation, chances have increased along the southern
Sierra ridges and across the southern Great Basin on Thursday.
Much of it should fall as rain with snow levels above 6000-7000
feet. Up to 70% POP for the southern Sierra with 35-40% across
south-central Nevada. POPs elsewhere remain 10-20%. Precipitation
chances move out Thursday night and into Friday.

Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees below average on Friday with
brief ridging building in from the west. Conditions return to dry
with light and terrain driven winds on Friday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

On Saturday, an extension of a closed low pushing into British
Columbia will bring modest mid-level moisture that will get
intercepted by the Sierra Nevada, resulting in slight PoPs along the
Sierra crest. The bulk of the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert
will get rain shadowed, resulting in no rain at all. That said,
looking at forecast PWAT, moisture values increase across these
areas from 0.10-0.20" on Wednesday to 0.40-0.50" by Saturday.
Looking at GFS forecast soundings, the moisture is likely to remain
mid-level with the bulk of the moisture entering our desert zones as
increased cloud cover. This lack of rain will continue our current
dry streak of 150 days in Las Vegas.

At-or-slightly above average temperatures will continue through the
weekend and into the next work week with the next shortwave of note
pushing through our forecast area Monday night into Tuesday.
Ensembles still have a bit of a discrepancy regarding timing and
depth of Monday night`s wave, which will determine the level of
impacts seen across our forecast area. Current PoPs highlight the
higher terrain of our northern zones with snow levels between 4500
and 5500 feet, though available moisture isn`t currently anything to
write home about.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light northeast winds, under 10 kts,
persist this afternoon. After sunset, winds shift back to the
west-southwest, remaining light. Breezier southwest winds develop
after 17Z with gusts of 15 kts. Mid and high level cloud cover
streams through the area tonight with cloud levels at or above
15kft. Clouds begin to clear by Thursday evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and eastern
California...Diurnal winds, less than 10 kts, are expected for
most terminals through tonight. The exception is KIFP, where
gusty northerly winds persist through this afternoon with peak
gusts of 15-20 kts. Winds for KIFP decrease after sunset.
South-southwest winds increase after 17Z with gusts of 15-25 kts.
Mid and high level clouds stream through the area tonight and
Thursday. Rain and snow showers begin to enter the Sierra and
Owens Valley by 15Z, with slight chances (15-25%) for most
terminals through Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO FGZ
SHORT TERM...WFO FGZ
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...WFO FGZ

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