Channel Islands Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

092
FXUS66 KLOX 210714
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1214 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...20/653 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through Saturday as low pressure
develops along the West Coast, along with increasing night
through morning low clouds and fog. Gusty northerly winds will
affect southern Santa Barbara County, the Interstate 5 Corridor
and other interior areas for the two nights. A warming trend for
inland areas is expected to begin Sunday but below normal
temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...20/803 PM.

***UPDATE***

A late season low pressure system has set up a strong northwest
to southeast oriented pressure gradient across Southwest
California. Moderate to strong northwest to west winds are
affecting portions of the area this evening, and will continue
tonight through late tonight or late Saturday night depending on
the location. The strongest winds will affect southwestern Santa
Barbara County, all of the interior mountains and the Antelope
Valley. The Central Coast, SW Santa Barbara County and interior
San Luis Obispo County will see the moderate to strong winds drop
off either late tonight. Damaging gusts of 60 to 65 mph are
expected where the winds are strongest.

The winds will cause significant fire weather concerns, due to
lowering humidity and drying fuels, especially in the grass crop.
Already numerous stations are showing humidites in the low 20s to
lower teens, with widespread humidity between 10 to 25 percent
expected to develop across the interior.

Finally, the marine layer cloud coverage overnight is likely to be
confined to coastal Ventura and LA Counties, possibly extending
into the coastal valleys in the late night hours.

***From Previous Discussion***

A late season trough now pushing into California has put an end
to the heat from earlier in the week with unseasonably strong
northwest to north winds likely across the region through Saturday
with widespread advisory level (gusts 30 to 50 mph) likely across
the mountains and nearly all of Santa Barbara and Ventura
Counties. Warning level gusts up to 65 mph are likely late this
afternoon through tonight for southwest Santa Barbara County
(especially from Gaviota to Refugio) and Saturday afternoon into
the night for the interior mountains of Santa Barbara County (with
a 50 percent chance of reaching the hills above Montecito),
Ventura County, and mountains and Antelope Valley foothills of Los
Angeles County, focused near the I-5 corridor in the northwest
portion of the county. Isolated power outages, downed trees, and
an increased risk for large life threatening wildfires will be
possible with the strong and potentially damaging winds.
Widespread Wind Advisories and more focused High Wind Warnings are
in place for the areas with the highest confidence in wind
impacts. Much weaker winds are anticipated into Sunday for most
areas in Breezy northwest to onshore wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph.

The marine layer will likely hang onto low clouds and fog
especially for Los Angeles County through Saturday, likely rapidly
expanding in coverage Sunday into Monday behind the high wind
event. Patchy drizzle is possible in Los Angeles County tonight
into Saturday morning in particular and especially in the
foothills on the east end of the county. Below normal temperatures
are expected, especially Saturday with widespread highs only in
the 70s to near 80.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...20/140 PM.

Weak troughing will and near to below normal temperatures likely
remain in place through at least Tuesday with seasonably weak
onshore winds and a fairly deep marine layer with night to morning
low clouds and fog. A gradual warm up and retreat of the marine
layer and associated cooling impact may occur later in the week as
a ridge of high pressure attempts to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...21/0713Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 feet deep with an
inversion top at 5000 feet with a temperature of 19 Celsius.

Moderate confidence in ceiling presence and flight categories for
the TAFs that have it, low confidence on timing. Low confidence on
winds at KWJF KPMD KSBA as nearby mountain wave activity could
surface strong winds at any time through the period. Expected LLWS
issues when winds are lighter at the airport.

KLAX...High confidence in ceilings staying above 020. Clearing to
VFR could happen as early as 16Z or as late as 19Z. Southeast
winds likely 12-17Z, with a 60% chance of exceeding 8 knots at
times.

KBUR...High confidence in ceilings staying above 015. Clearing to
VFR could happen as early as 14Z or as late as 18Z. Northwest
surface wind gusts or LLWS to 20 knots possible Sat 02-08Z.

&&

.MARINE...20/802 PM.

***HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY***

High confidence in prolonged and strong Gale Force northwest
winds beyond 20 miles from shore through Saturday night, strongest
this evening through Saturday evening. Moderate confidence in
gusts of 30 to 35 knots impacting the nearshore Central Coast
waters and western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon and
evening during this stretch. All waters will see building and
hazardously steep short period seas. While winds will likely not
reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) everywhere, a SCA is in effect
for all areas not in the Gale Warning due the combination of
widespread steep seas and the potential for widespread gusts.
Small craft should stay in safe harbor, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

High confidence in lowering winds and subsiding seas for the first
half of next week, with abnormally large high tides each evening.
SCA winds are still likely for the waters beyond 20 miles for
shore, which is typical for this time of the year.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...20/349 PM.

An unseasonably strong upper level trough of low pressure will move through
the region through Saturday night. West to northwest winds will continue to
increase this afternoon and evening brining widespread elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions across the interior and southern Santa
Barbara County. The winds are expected to further increase in coverage and speed
Saturday afternoon into evening, when damaging wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph
will likely become more widespread across the interior, mainly focused across
the I-5 corridor, Ventura County mountains, Santa Barbara County interior
mountains, and Antelope Valley including the western foothills. This damaging
wind threat combined with low humidities in the 10 to 25 percent range will
likely bring critical fire weather conditions to these areas, resulting in the
issuance of the Red Flag Warning from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for this time frame for the
eastern Santa Ynez Range where there is the potential for strong/damaging
winds to coincide with low humidities. Areas in a Red Flag Warning and
Fire Weather Watch will have the highest risk for rapid fire spread and
extreme fire behavior, with the threat of long range spotting.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 342-343-379. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 AM PDT Sunday for
      zone 345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 350-356-382-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon
      to 5 AM PDT Sunday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Fire Weather Watch in effect from this afternoon through late
      tonight for zone 352. (See LAXRFWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM
      PDT Sunday for zones 353-376>378-381-383. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT early this
      morning for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...RK/Lund/Black
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox