Carlsbad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

828
FXUS66 KSGX 102044
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
144 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The hottest day of the year so far is underway, with many
temperature records set to fall. A substantial cooling trend
begins on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches, with much
cooler conditions by Monday, and Tuesday being the coolest day
next week. Gusty winds will accompany the low pressure system for
Monday and Tuesday with the strongest gusts found in the mountains
and deserts. Drizzle or light rain is possible along the coastal
mountain slopes Monday night into Tuesday as a deep marine layer
makes a return. Gradual warming back to near normal by the end of
the week with a more typical May Gray pattern setting up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Today and Sunday...

The potent upper level ridge providing an early taste of Summer
remains in control across the Southwest US. As advertised, the
hottest day of the year is underway with some records already
(preliminarily) broken. Moderate to major HeatRisk expected this
afternoon with temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal for mid-
May. With this, the Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Inland
Empire and San Diego County inland valleys through 9PM this evening.
Check out the table below to see our record tracker and where the
latest high temperature readings were as of 1PM this afternoon:

  City            Current Daily Record   Fcst High     1PM Temp
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Anaheim            92F (set in 1993)        96F          92F
Big Bear Lake      79F (set in 2009)        79F          72F
Borrego            105F (set in 1996)       106F         102F
Campo              94F (set in 1960)        96F          90F
Ramona             91F (set in 1981)        99F          100F
Riverside          103F (set in 1957)       103F         100F
Thermal            107F (set in 1996)       107F         106F
Vista              89F (set in 1984)        91F          86F

After being completely eroded away today, the marine layer begins to
rebuild tonight, with patchy fog possible along the waters, coasts,
and coastal mesas early Sunday morning. As the ridge begins to slide
eastward tonight into Sunday, afternoon temperatures begin to cool
off, but still remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday...

A substantial pattern change comes early next week as a large
upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday morning
moves ashore and digs down through California Monday into Tuesday.
As quickly as the temperatures rose late this week, they will
cool just as quickly with the incoming trough, as high
temperatures will fall to be as much as 15 to 20 degrees below
average for the mountains by Tuesday. The marine layer deepens
well through 5000 feet by Monday night, with clouds extending well
through the coastal mountain slopes Tuesday morning. A deep cloud
layer paired with some lift from the approaching trough could be
enough to support some drizzle or light rain, with the best
chances for the coastal mountain slopes. Rainfall amounts are only
at about a few hundredths right now, so we`ll see what we can get
out of this. There will be stronger onshore flow for Monday and
Tuesday with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the
mountains and deserts. The stronger gusts, to 45 to 55 mph, are
expected in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio
Pass with isolated gusts near 65. Wind Advisories may be necessary
in future updates for the mountains and deserts if the current
trends persist.

Wednesday through the end of the week...

The main axis of the upper trough passes by Wednesday morning, and
while weak troughing lingers into late week, Wednesday into
Thursday will be less cool than Tuesday, inching closer to near
normal by Friday. We return to a stereotypical May Gray setup for
the latter half of the week with a marginally deep marine layer
extending into the inland valleys, with clouds likely lingering
along the coasts into the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
102030Z..Coast...Skies have cleared across the region this
afternoon. Clouds will be slightly higher tonight with bases near
400-600 ft MSL, forming near the coast after 08Z. Confidence remains
on low on cig impacts at coastal TAF sites, with VCTY KSAN having
the best chance to see low clouds (around 09-15Z Sunday).  High
clouds overhead will act to inhibit this development making for a
tricky forecast. Vis restrictions near 1-3SM expected where clouds
form. Low clouds clearing after 15Z with high confidence in mostly
clear conditions by the late morning and afternoon hours. Cigs
moving back ashore Sunday evening will be higher based and further
inland.

Elsewhere...Mostly clear with VFR conditions today and tonight.
Elevated westerly winds with surface gusts 30-45 mph expected across
mountains and deserts by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Low clouds and patchy fog are expected to form tonight and Sunday
morning, highest confidence within the inner coastal waters.
Visibility 1-3SM over the waters where clouds/fog form. Northwest
winds will strengthen for Monday and Tuesday, with high confidence
on winds reaching Small Craft strength across the outer coastal
waters.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Valleys.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munyan
AVIATION/MARINE...APR