Brookdale, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXUS66 KMTR 190819
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
119 AM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Fairly quiet weather is in store through the next several days,
with a modest warming trend through early next week. A pattern
change will bring cooler, cloudier conditions and a chance for
light rain late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The marine layer has compressed to around 500 feet, and the low
stratus is confined mostly to the Bay Area coast. The marine layer
is a little deeper across the central coast, where the stratus is
filling the Salinas Valley. These clouds will clear in the
afternoon and the temperatures will be near normal, similar to
yesterday. A weak disturbance will arrive this evening, allowing
the marine layer to deepen. As a result, cloud cover will be more
extensive early Sunday morning. The offshore winds will also
weaken as the gradient relaxes. This will allow more low-level
moisture, and there could be patchy fog and even some drizzle
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1201 AM PDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The disturbance will quickly move through Sunday, allowing
persistent zonal flow to become entrenched from Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday. This will bring fair weather with mostly clear
skies, gentle to moderate onshore winds, and high temperatures
above seasonal normal. The typical warmer inland areas have a
roughly even chance of breaking 80 degrees Monday. This warmer
weather will cause minor HeatRisk, which can be hazardous to those
extremely sensitive to the heat. Otherwise, this period will be
pretty nice.

Ensembles are now in good agreement that the pattern will change
mid week as a deep trough disrupts the subtropical high in the
eastern Pacific. This system will bring a cooler air mass from the
NW, causing surface temperatures to cool back below normal by
Friday. The strength and timing of this trough is still uncertain,
but it is looking more likely that some light rain will fall
Friday-Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Satellite shows low ceilings have pushed inland over Monterey Bay
and along the coast causing IFR/MVFR conditions over KSNS, KMRY and
KHAF. Most models show agreement of MVFR conditions building over
most of the terminals (with the exception of KLVK) but there is some
uncertainty as some offshore winds should keep things a bit on the
drier side and keep the marine layer confined to the coast. VFR
expected to return by 18Z for all terminals, but MVFR conditions are
anticipated to return by Saturday night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR currently, but low stratus has developed along
the coast. Models vary with bringing MVFR ceilings in tonight.
Therefore, moderate confidence on MVFR building near 10Z, as there
is a chance that a low SCT group may prevail through the night. If
MVFR conditions occur, expect VFR near 17-18Z. MVFR ceiling will
return by late Saturday night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail until 18-
19Z, where VFR is expected to return. Timing is a bit uncertain as
conditions may clear closer to 20Z. MVFR conditions may prevail
through most of KMRY TAF period. Expect both terminals to see a
return of MVFR by 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 845 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Northerly flow increases going into early Saturday, especially
over the northern outer waters, as a weak cold front approaches
from the north. The increasing winds will result in a building
northerly fresh swell. Stronger northerly winds will last into the
next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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