Blue Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

750
FXUS65 KPSR 041715
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1015 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Overall tranquil conditions are expected to persist over the
Desert Southwest through the rest of this week despite a very weak
low pressure system affecting the region. Generally dry
conditions will also continue, with perhaps a few isolated light
showers over higher terrain areas mainly on Thursday. Unseasonably
warm temperatures are still in the forecast for the region, with
daily highs running a good 10 degrees or so above normal for this
time of year through Saturday. Cooler, but still dry weather
conditions are then anticipated during the first half of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern continues to show little progress in eroding
the Rex Block which has impacted the region since last week, but
the weak upper level low which has been situated to our west has
finally moved over our region. This broad upper level low, which
remains cut off from the main polar jet, contains very little
system moisture or dynamics and will largely go unnoticed across
our region over the next few days. It will at least drop
temperatures a few degrees mainly over south-central Arizona, but
readings will still run near 10 degrees above normal for early
December. Two current low centers are forecast to consolidate to
one slightly stronger low center over south-central Arizona later
today and remain nearly stationary through most of Thursday. A
slight change in the forecast models over the past 24 hours now
shows a bit better mid level moisture getting pulled into Arizona
from the east, but even with this PWATs will max out around 0.5",
or around 125-150% of normal. Low level moisture will however
remain quite low. Given the lack of any organized forcing and the
very marginal moisture, the most we are likely to see are some
light higher based showers over the higher terrain focused on
Thursday afternoon. NBM PoPs of 10-20% during this time from Globe
and areas east of Globe seems reasonable.

From Friday into Saturday, guidance remains in good agreement
showing the upper low drifting into northern Mexico, but heights
aloft and temperatures over our area will essentially stay the
same. A stronger ridge situated just to our west is likely to try
to push itself somewhat into our region later Saturday into
Sunday, but guidance now shows it to be so short-lived that we
will not see a temperature bump at all. In fact, quickly moving in
from the northwest at the same time is a strong Pacific trough.
Guidance shows this trough passing through the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday essentially squeezing out any of its marginal moisture
it started with before diving into the Great Basin on Sunday.
Model ensemble output is now in very good agreement any energy
from this trough will bypass our region to the northeast on
Monday, but it will still bring in a decent amount of cooler air.
As even drier conditions surge southward into our region Monday
into Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to fall to within the
normal range, or mostly in the mid 60s by Tuesday. These near
normal temperatures should prevail through the middle of next week
with indications of a slight warm up possible but still dry
conditions later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1715Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather concerns through tonight under generally clear
skies. Typical diurnal wind tendencies are expected for the
Phoenix area terminals. Across SE California, W/NW winds will be
preferred. Extended periods of nearly calm conditions or light
variability are likely at all terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall tranquil weather conditions will continue to prevail
through the end of the week, but with some slight chances for a
few very light showers over the eastern Arizona higher terrain on
Thursday. Expect overall light winds each day somewhat following
diurnal wind patterns. However, some breeziness is likely mainly
during the overnight and morning hours across the higher terrain
of eastern Arizona and within the Lower CO River Valley. MinRHs
will stay in the teens across the western districts to 20-25%
over the south-central Arizona lower deserts and 30-40% over the
Arizona higher terrain. Dry and warm conditions will then prevail
over the weekend before temperatures begin to fall early next
week. A dry weather system passing through the region early next
week will also bring a period of breezy to locally windy
conditions focused mostly over the Lower CO River Valley.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Young/RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman