Big Sur, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

680
FXUS66 KMTR 160541
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1041 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Warm conditions continue today and Friday before a slight cooldown
over the weekend. Gusty winds will develop late Friday into Sunday.
Warm conditions return early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

No changes in the forecast this evening. A series of upper level
shortwave energy will continue to transect NoCal and the Central
Coast tomorrow into the weekend. Gusty winds at higher elevations
tomorrow will become more wide spread into the lower elevations and
coastal areas on Saturday. Marine layer stratus will be spotty
tonight, with an increase in coverage expected by late Friday night
into Saturday as more robust onshore flow along the coast develops
for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Satellite imagery shows lingering stratus at the immediate coast of
the San Mateo Peninsula and the Big Sur Coast. With an upper level
ridge across the West Coast, overall conditions remain dry and
seasonably warm throughout the region with highs ranging from the
middle 70s to the lower 80s inland and the middle 60s to lower 70s
along the Bayshore, while onshore flow keeps the coastal regions
cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday`s forecast is
quite similar in the inland areas, but a stronger onshore flow
should result in slightly cooler conditions in the coastal valleys,
such as the southern reaches of the SF Bay (Redwood City and
Fremont southwards), the Santa Clara valley, and the northern
Salinas Valley, where around 3 to 5 degrees of cooling are
expected. Meanwhile, morning lows hover around the upper 40s to
the middle 50s for most people, with pockets of lower to middle
40s in the highest peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Later on Friday through Saturday, an upper level trough will develop
off the Pacific Northwest and deepen as it travels into the Great
Basin, causing a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend. The
ensemble models are starting to converge on a more open trough to
continue into the Intermountain West or perhaps the Great Plains, as
opposed to the Great Basin cutoff low that we had anticipated at
this time yesterday, but this is a distinction without a difference
for Saturday`s high temperatures, which will dip by around 10
degrees in the interior valleys, to around the middle 60s to lower
70s, while the Bayshore drops into the lower to middle 60s. Although
the trough will continue to move eastwards, leaving a classic
"inside slider" scenario less likely, the pressure gradient between
the cutoff low and a ridge in the eastern Pacific will still result
in gusty winds across the region later on Friday into Sunday. The
current forecast continues to show wind gusts reaching 25 to 35 mph
across the region with gusts up to 45 mph possible at the
ridgelines, along the coast, and through favored gaps and passes.

Warming temperatures will return for the early part of next week
with high temperatures rising to the middle 80s to lower 90s inland,
or around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Low temperatures
should remain relatively stable near the upper 40s to middle 50s for
the lower elevations, which should help alleviate concerns for heat-
related illnesses for all but the most sensitive populations. Late
Sunday and Monday, northerly winds could develop on the backside of
the trough in the interior regions, especially in Napa County and
the interior East Bay, helping to reinforce the warmer and drier
conditions in those areas. Towards, and beyond, the end of the 7 day
forecast, ensemble model clusters begin to diverge on the upper
level pattern, with around 20% of ensembles developing an upper
level trough heading into the start of the Memorial Day weekend,
another 20-30% anticipating more zonal flow, and the remaining 50-
60% holding onto the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

High level clouds have started to move in with patchy stratus
developing along the coastline. Highest confidence continues to be
that HAF, MRY, and SNS will get stratus overnight with MVFR CIGs the
most likely to occur. CIGs will hover on the border of MVFR/IFR for
coastal airports but currently leaning towards more MVFR CIGs.
Confidence is low that stratus will spread inland due to a
compressed marine layer (~1000ft) and dry conditions across the
interior. Guidance does indicate some patchy stratus may develop
around OAK but, if it develops, it looks to be temporary in nature
with VFR prevailing. Onshore winds pick up tomorrow afternoon with
breezy to locally gusty conditions across all TAF sites. Gusty
conditions will continue through the end of the TAF period.
Widespread MVFR CIGs look to return at the end of this TAF period to
just after the end of this TAF period as a southerly surge of
stratus develops.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Low confidence that
stratus will reach SFO due to compressed marine layer and drier
conditions across the interior. High level clouds will filter in
overnight with some patchy FEW/SCT low level clouds possible during
the early morning. If any stratus does develop, it is likely to stay
closer to OAK than SFO during the early morning hours. Gusty onshore
winds develop during the day tomorrow with gusts to around 29 knots
forecast. Gusty winds will persist through the end of the TAF period
with MVFR CIGs returning tomorrow night as a southerly surge
develops.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR overnight with VFR briefly returning
during the day tomorrow. Confidence is low to moderate on stratus
clearing time tomorrow with the most likely clearing time between
18Z-20Z. A few models indicate MRY may not clear but confidence is
low in that scenario. Breezy to gusty onshore flow develops during
the day tomorrow with gusts to around 20 knots expected. Breezy
conditions will persist tomorrow night with MVFR CIGs returning
early tomorrow evening as a southerly surge develops.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 845 PM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the coastal waters
with gale force gusts over the outer waters. Near gale force to
gale  force gusts will become more widespread Friday morning into
Saturday. Winds will further increase late Saturday night into
Sunday with widespread gale force gusts to continue through the
early work week. Moderate seas and steep, wind-driven fresh swell
will continue through the early work week with significant wave
heights between 10 to 12 feet. Conditions over the outer waters
will  worsen Sunday into the early work week as winds increase.
Hazardous  conditions will continue through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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