Avocado Heights, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS66 KLOX 020102
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
602 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...01/137 PM.

A deep marine layer and onshore flow will keep temperatures well
below normal through the end of the week with some night and
morning drizzle possible across coast and valleys. There is a
chance of thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon and
evening as an upper low moves through the area. Even cooler
temperatures will occur over the weekend with a renewed threat of
occasional showers and possible thunderstorms in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...01/214 PM.

Thunderstorms developed quickly in the mountains this afternoon,
especially in Ventura and eastern Santa Barbara Counties but also
springing up across the eastern San Gabriels as well. Storms are
putting out a lot of lightning and are slow moving with PW`s
around 1 inch so the potential for flash flooding is high in the
mountains. Across the eastern San Gabriels satellite imagery shows
increasing cloud tops but so far no lightning. Steering flow has
already shifted and is coming in from the northeast so any storms
will move slowly towards the southwest, which could impact the
Eaton burn scar later this afternoon and evening. Showers are
possible as well across southeastern Santa Barbara County as the
decaying storms to the northeast move over that area. Probably
just some light showers but can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm either, but a better chance in the Santa Ynez Range.

A rather complicated and low confidence forecast tomorrow and
especially through the weekend. A brief ridge will pop up Friday
leading to a some lowering of the marine layer, earlier clearing
mad slightly warmer temperatures. Models still indicate some
lingering moisture and instability in the mountains and have added
a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mainly Ventura and
Santa Barbara Counties. However, with the upper low to the east
steering winds will switch around to the southwest so any storms
will move towards the northeast.

Over the weekend another upper low moves down the coast and into
Southern California late Saturday night. Confidence in what
happens during this period is very low. The upper low originally
was taking a more inside track along the Sierra crest but is now
expected to follow the coastline down to Pt Conception and then
into Orange and San Diego Counties Sunday morning. PW`s are quite
a bit lower but it`s a very cold upper low for this time of year
and it`s hard to imagine not getting some showers across the area.
NBM pops are extremely low (as usual with low precip events) but
pattern recognition would suggest a higher chance of rain than
what the models are suggesting. Any showers would be light and
generally under a tenth of an inch, and rain may be more like
marine layer drizzle, but rain chances have been increased to 20%
south of Pt Conception to at least give some heads up that it may
be a little damp Sunday. And may need to add pops to northern
areas as the low gets closer. Temperatures will likely we well
below normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...01/216 PM.

Enough ensemble members swing a secondary impulse across the area
Monday as the main upper low exits the state. This is enough for
a slight chc of mtn shower, but again without much moisture to
work with the shower threat is very minimal. All the cold air
should have mixed out the marine inversion so there should be few
if any low clouds in the morning. Skies still partly cloudy from
some wrap around clouds. 2 to 5 degrees of warming across the csts
and vlys will not be enough to bring max temps out of the 60s.

EC and the GFS as well as their respective ensembles are in better
agreement for the Tuesday Wednesday forecast. Look for weak
ridging over the area with moderate onshore flow in the afternoon.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will resume with mostly
clear afternoons. Two days of warming will bring max temps into
the mid to upper 60s for most of the csts and into the 70s for the
vlys.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0101Z.

At 0015Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 3300 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Low confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD through 03Z due to
uncertainty in the durations of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
are producing gusty, erratic winds, heavy rain, hail, and
lightning and could persist through 03Z but the timing could be
off by +/- 1 hour.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining sites. There is a 20%
chance for KPRB to remain VFR thru the overnight period. The
remaining sites are expected to have MVFR with periodic IFR conds
overnight. Clearing/arrival of cigs may be off +/- 3 hours and
minimum flight cat may be off by one cat.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival time of MVFR
cigs may differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF time of 04Z. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Arrival of MVFR
cigs may be off +/- 3 hours from TAF time of 05Z. There is a
20-30% chance that conds drop to IFR overnight.

&&

.MARINE...01/810 AM.

High confidence in winds and seas remaining relatively benign
until Friday morning. Then, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will
become widespread across the waters Friday afternoon. Winds will
then increase to GALE FORCE levels Saturday afternoon, including
the potential for nearshore. There is a low (10%) chance for STORM
FORCE winds in the Outer Waters late Saturday through Sunday.
Seas will build to 10 to 15 feet. Conditions will improve late
Sunday into early Monday. Then, sub- advisory conditions will be
common through mid week.

There is a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms across the northern
waters Saturday, then the threat continues for most of the
coastal waters into Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to noon PDT
      Saturday for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
      morning for zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to noon PDT
      Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox