Atascadero, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS66 KLOX 301156
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
356 AM PST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/151 AM.

One more day of cool weather today with low pressure remaining in
place across the region. Warmer weather will start Friday. Light
rain is possible north of Santa Barbara over the weekend. There
will be an increasing chance of rain will across the entire
region next Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...30/259 AM.

Not too much to talk about today. The pesky upper low has finally
moved to the east and an upper high has moved over the state.
There is a 3000 to 4000 ft marine layer capped by a very weak
inversion. Onshore flow and weak eddy has produced an abundance of
low clouds that cover most coasts and many of the vlys. Upslope
lifting has even brought some low clouds to the mtn slopes. The
Central Coast will be directly under the ridge axis and this along
with a reduction in onshore flow will bring 2 to 4 degrees of
warming to that area. The deeper marine layer will cool most
portions of the LA/VTA csts and vlys. Still a cool day with max
temps coming in 4 to 8 degrees under normal with most max temps
within 2 degrees of 60.

Not much change at all on Friday. There will be plenty of morning
low clouds across the csts and many of the vlys. The stratus will
dissipate by the afternoon leaving partly cloudy skies in their
wake. The big news for Friday will be the warming of the airmass
under the ridge. Look for 3 to 6 degrees of warming and max temps
in the mid 60s for most cst/vly locations.

The will be flattened out by an PAC NW trof moving down the west
coast. The ridge and trof reach a stalemate and then move little.
This will set up a nearly stationary atmospheric river over the
center of the state with PWs reaching 1.1 inches. A 20 to 30
percent chc of rain will develop over SLO county with a 15 to 20
percent chc over western SBA county. Only a few ensemble members
indicate moderate rain for this area with the majority all
favoring a tenth to a quarter inch of rain over the course of the
weekend. Skies will be mostly cloudy over SLO/SBA counties and
partly to mostly cloudy over VTA/LA counties.

Despite the cloud cover the warm WSW flow will allow for 2 to 4
degrees of warming on Sat and 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. By Sunday
many locations will see max temps in the lower 70s.

Over the weekend a weak high pressure ridge from the south will be
fighting a deepening trough over the Pac NW and a strong
atmospheric river over northern California. PW`s increase rapidly
from around .3" to around 1.1" and some showers are possible
along the Central coast, but mainly SLO County. Ensemble means
keep rain amounts mostly under a quarter inch, but there are a
10-20% of solutions between a half and one inch. The one exception
will be the extreme NW tip of SLO county which could see over an
inch of rain during the two day period.

Farther south, temperatures will be warming up being under the
influence of the ridge as well as weakening onshore flow.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...30/258 AM.

Monday will be much like the weekend with a slight chc to chc of
rain across the Central Coast. Rainfall totals for the day should
be under a tenth of an inch if not zero with the usual caveat that
the extreme NW corner of SLO county could see quite a bit more.
The cloud cover will be more extensive and thicker and this will
bring several degrees of cooling to all areas.

A cold 526 dam upper low ejects out of British Columbia Monday
night and moves southward. This will push the flow pattern and the
AR down to the south and will tilt it in a more SW to NE
direction. This will set up at least a moderate rainfall event for
the Central Coast with about a 25 percent chc of a mdt to hvy
event. Mdls still struggling with the fcst for south of Pt
Conception with respect to timing and intensity. Right now will
say rain is likely to develop sometime over the 2 day period but
low confidence on exactly when. Best guess rainfall amounts have
increased some with two day totals now forecast to be near a half
inch and perhaps near an inch across some coastal slopes of SBA
and western VTA counties.

This will be a much warmer storm than the last one so little or
no snow expected locally below 8000 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1155Z.

At 09Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer up to 3200 ft.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF Package. Most
confident in desert sites (KPMD, KWJF). There is a 40% chance of
MVFR conds at KSBP after 06Z Fri. For KPRB, low clouds/fog may
return with similar conds after 06Z Fri. Timing of cigs/vsby
restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours. Flight cats may be off by one
or two.

KLAX...Low confidence in 12Z TAF. VFR conds may arrive as late as
23Z. There is a 20% chance that ~BKN/OVC015-25 cigs do not return
from 12Z to 18Z Fri. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 10
percent chc of BKN008 conds thru 18Z Thu.

&&

.MARINE...30/131 AM.

In the Outer Waters, conditions should remain fairly benign
before chances increase for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
Friday night thru the weekend. The areas favored will be for the
waters around Point Conception and the Channel Islands. Best
chances will be Sat afternoon/eve at ~30-40%.

In the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is a 20% chance
late Friday into Saturday, and a 30% chance Saturday evening into
Sunday. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Sun night.

In the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there a 20% chance
of SCA conds there Thu afternoon/eve. Chances for SCA level winds
increases from Friday afternoon through the weekend, with higher
confidence in late Saturday through Sunday having the best chances
(~30-40%) for SCA winds getting into the Santa Barbara Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Schoenfeld/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox