Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

633
FXUS64 KMEG 192334
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Hot and humid conditions will start tomorrow and continue well
  into next week, with heat indices above 105 degrees over much of
  the Mid-South by Saturday.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be limited to
  mainly north Mississippi through the weekend and then expand
  across the Mid-South next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Currently...The upper trough that helped to trigger the storms
that pushed through the area earlier today has pushed off to the
east. The storms themselves have sunk south out of the Mid-South
toward central MS. A weak, dissipating, cold front is situated
roughly along I-40. A couple of weak showers have developed along
this feature. As the airmass recovers across the Mid-South some
isolated redevelopment could occur this afternoon and evening
south of I-40 but confidence is low.

Tonight should be mostly quiet after anything that develops over
the next few hours dissipates. A few of the hi-res models show
isolated development overnight along the leftover boundary from
east-central AR into parts of the Delta of NW MS. Patchy fog is
expected to develop thanks to all the recent rains.

Upper level high pressure will build over the area over the next
few days and then drift east and park over the SE US through next
week. As a result the first heat wave of the season is on tap as
temps climb into the lower to mid 90s by the weekend. That
combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will result in
heat index values at or above 105 degrees. Recent rains and
associated evapotranspiration will bolster dewpoints over the next
few days. A few counties will reach criteria tomorrow so a Heat
Advisory has been issued for parts of east AR and NW MS. That Heat
Advisory will likely need to be expanded this weekend to cover most
if not all of the area. The heat and humidity will continue through
most of next week.

Expect isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms across NE MS
through the weekend. This area should expand to cover most of the
Mid-South by later in the week as heights fall a bit and
southerly flow picks up on the backside of the upper high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR. Winds south to southwest, less than 5kts. Patchy fog is
possible near TUP and MKL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

High pressure will prevail through the middle of next week. There
will be 20-30% chance of isolated summertime convection each day
starting Saturday. Very hot and humid conditions will start tomorrow
with temperatures in the mid 90s each afternoon. Fire concerns
continue to be low with high afternoon relative humidities and
moist fuels.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ035-048-049-
     058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC