Paragould, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS64 KMEG 231010
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
410 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

After a chilly start this morning, afternoon temperatures warm
into the mid to upper 50s over most of the Midsouth. Southerly
winds will return tonight and become gusty Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will continue to warm each day, with Monday`s highs
reaching the lower 70s over much of the Midsouth. A cold front
will arrive late Monday, dropping midweek temperatures back to
near normal. Rain appears likely for the Thanksgiving holiday,
followed by cooler than normal temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Upper level flow over the Midsouth will transition from the
northwest to southwest, as a low amplitude ridge traverses the
region through Monday. Rain chances will remain nil through
Sunday. Strong southerly flow will develop at the surface on
Sunday and continue Monday, helping to drive a warming trend. A
narrow axis of moisture will build into the Midsouth on Monday, in
advance of a Pacific cold front. This front will move through the
Midsouth after peak heating Monday, and serve as a focus for
scattered showers. Rain amounts should average a tenth of an inch
or less.

For Tuesday and early Wednesday, fast zonal flow aloft will
prevail over much of the southern CONUS. A northern branch trough
will move from the Great Basin Wednesday morning to the southern
plains Thursday morning. Prior to height affecting the Midsouth on
Thursday, a lead shortwave will eject from the southern plains
Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF continue to depict coupled jet
streaks over the Midsouth for a brief period late Wednesday. PWAT
will be adequate for rainfall through early morning Thursday,
ranging from 1-1.25 inches north to south.

Of some concern, ECMWF guidance depicts modified marine layer
lifting into north MS Wednesday night, in advance of the
approaching synoptic upper level trough. ECMWF depicts mixed-
layer CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg over north MS around sunrise
Thursday. By such time, model hodographs are elongated, relative
to the more curved profiles Wednesday evening. GFS depicts
considerably less instability early Thursday morning. Among the
NBM ensemble members, there is a 650 J/kg standard deviation for
surface-based CAPE during this period. As such, confidence in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning is low. Rain should lift out of the Midsouth
Thursday afternoon/early evening, as the upper trough axis exits
to our east.

Fast west/northwest flow aloft will prevail Friday into the
weekend. By Sunday, model spread begins to widen with respect to
northern branch energy dropping southeast from western Canada.
This will impact Midsouth rain and possibly light wintry precip
chances late next weekend. While there is considerable uncertainly
regarding timing and path of upper level shortwaves eight days
out, medium range consensus points toward broad 500mb negative
height anomalies. Confidence is thus relatively high for cooler
than normal temperatures Friday through next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Guidance continues to hint at the potential for lower stratus and
reduced visibilities affecting the MKL terminal Saturday morning.
Confidence in this situation still remains fairly low for MEM at
this time but will be closely monitored. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds should prevail. Winds are expected to
back to southerly by tomorrow evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JPR