Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

946
FXUS64 KSHV 211131
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
531 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

As Thursday dawns to find the ArkLaTex experiencing the coldest air
of the season so far, patchy frost may linger across our
northernmost zones in southeast Oklahoma and adjacent areas of
Arkansas for a few hours, to quickly melt off with daytime warming
under abundantly sunny skies areawide. Taking into account the
recent performance of guidance, and bearing in mind the similar
setup in play this afternoon - clear skies, dry airmass, and
northeasterly winds - elected to adjust afternoon highs up 1-2
degrees from NBM, aiming for the middle 60s north to upper 60s and
lower 70s south.

The large closed low over the Great Lakes will push eastward to the
Atlantic Seaboard today and tonight, deepening and elongating along
a southwest to northeast axis as it does so. Meanwhile, the vast
upper level ridge over the Rockies will broaden somewhat but
ultimately remain in place. The position of these two features on
either side of the ArkLaTex aloft will help lock in place
northwest flow, potentially even becoming due northerly, but with
no dramatic changes to the established pattern through 00Z
Saturday. Thus, Friday will unfold in a very similar manner to
today, cooling to near the freezing mark north, with upper 30s and
lower 40s along and south of I-20 and potentially more widespread
frost to greet the dawn, followed by another afternoon of crystal
clear skies while temperatures soar into the 60s areawide,
mitigated a few degrees by the more due northerly flow.

SP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

As the weekend begins, the Four State Region will experience our
third - and, for now, last - morning of below average lows,
currently on track to be a near carbon copy of Friday`s. Our sites
in southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas should look to see
freezing temperatures once again, with upper 30s and lower 40s
elsewhere. Areas of frost will be possible for much of the region,
melting off by midmorning as temperatures take aim at the lower 70s
again for the southwest half of the region, with mid to upper 60s
north and east.

This weekend will herald a regime change bringing a dramatic end to
this brief stint of below average conditions. The ridge will
continue to broaden and ultimately flatten out, with zonal flow
aloft prevailing while this breakdown of the previous upper level
regime makes way for southerly surface winds, quickly bumping our
high temperatures back to above average values in the mid to upper
70s Sunday with lows returning to the 50s and 60s. A weak
shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft looks to swing a cold
front into the ArkLaTex on Monday, sharply dividing highs between
the upper 60s northwest and upper 70s and even 80s south and
east. Meanwhile, fueled by moisture returns on the southerly
surface winds, an unsettled pattern looks to set up for much of
the remainder of the week, with showers returning to our Louisiana
zones overnight into Tuesday morning, dissipating through the day
before returning in force Wednesday and continuing through the
end of this extended forecast period. Highs will range from the
upper 50s north to lower 70s south, accompanied by lows in the 40s
and 50s throughout.

SP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

For the 21/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail throughout
the period with mostly SKC in the wake of yet another reinforcing
cold front. Breezy W/NW winds will persist behind the cold front,
generally ranging between 5-15 kts with higher gusts near 20 kts.
Winds will quickly decouple around 22/00Z, dropping off to around
5 kts or less as sfc high pressure builds into our airspace from
the NW.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  68  37  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  64  30  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  68  37  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  34  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  40  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  68  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ050-051.

LA...None.
OK...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19