Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

214
FXUS64 KSHV 170707
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
207 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Stable conditions expected tonight as an upper-level ridge
remains firmly established overhead. Aside from a few high clouds,
mostly clear skies to prevail areawide. Weak low-level southerly
flow expected to bring a gradual warming trend with lows tonight
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Current forecast is on track, no
update needed at this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

After a chilly start below average, air temps have rebounded to
back above the mid month average of of mid to upper 70s. Its 81
now in Shreveport with a handful of others at or above 80 and
still warming. The SE winds have helped with the Gulf of America
near shore waters in the lower 70s. The abundant sunshine has
provided even more with expectations for low 80s in most locales
in the next hour or so. The air mass that brought the chilly air
down is now well to our east with the SW gradient looming for slow
arrivals this special weekend. Tonight will be much warmer with
the dew points climbing all day and into the night. Around 60 for
a low is only about 5 degrees above average, but the warming will
continue for us. Highs on Thursday will see mid 80s widespread as
S/SW winds pick up again. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The high clouds continue to filter our way, especially once the
sails (anvils) hoist over TX/OK ahead of our next approaching
cool front. As my prelude suggested the pattern for the weekend is
still a work in progress. The SPC outlooks for the weekend remain
a concern with a Marginal Risk draping in over McCurtain
primarily for their day 3 for after midnight or late Friday
evening at the earliest. Then the day 4 picks up the Slight Risk
is bisecting half of our Counties, but only a couple of Parishes
as the models slow eastward progression of our tail end Charlie
posture along the slow moving boundary under SW flow paralleling
the front. Their day 5 still sports most of the ArkLaTex, honing
out our far NW edge.

So Easter Sunday may start off with some lingering thunderstorm
activity, with a good expectation for re-firing with Sunday
heating in the lower 80s for many locales. So we will look for
some better output as more short term guidance comes into the time
line. The GFS is now farther north on the core low in the long
wave with the ECMWF at 555dam over NB/SD. The ECMWF is a little
more robust on the surface reflection with a core wrap at 999mb
over MO by lunch time on Sunday. A weak, but sufficient 1022mb
surface high will bring a dry start to next week. However the long
range CPC 8-14 day outlook favors wetter than average which is
good as we wrap up the month of April. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Low clouds are quickly lifting north across the airspace this
morning. While SKC was prevailed for many, this will be short
lived, especially across the southern airspace where the first
push is ongoing. BKN/OVC at or below 3kft is expected across the
airspace this morning and into the early afternoon before lifting
and scattering out through the mid and late afternoon. By the late
afternoon and into the evening, mid and high cloud is expected to
filter in from the west, spreading east across the airspace. This
will prevail through the end of the period. One other factor to
consider this afternoon across the terminals is for higher
southerly wind gusts, generally on the order of 15-20kt, with the
potential for a brief gust higher then the current advertisement.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through the work week. However,
this weekend activation may be likely, and perhaps on both days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  86  67  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  83  63  85  66 /   0   0  10  30
TXK  86  66  89  70 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  86  64  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  85  66  87  70 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  86  65  88  69 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  86  67  88  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...53