Lowell, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

734
FXUS64 KTSA 162324
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

  - A low chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight near
    the Kansas and Missouri border.

  - Above normal temperatures return for the remainder of the work
    week; much cooler temperatures this weekend with cold front
    and rain.

  - A more active weather pattern returns Friday into the weekend
    with multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rain
    expected. The heavy rains may lead to some flooding, including
    river flooding.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Fairly copacetic weather will persist through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early-mid evening hours. Upper-level
ridge axis will slide east of the area late tonight as a potent
mid-level trough begins digging over the Pacific NW/Great Basin
regions. Consensus in model guidance show a subtle shortwave rough
ejecting off the Rockies this evening and moving eastward across
KS. This feature will coincide will increasing warm air/low-level
moisture advection as a low-level jet develops and strengthens
over the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern KS
ahead of a dryline by early evening. CAMs indicate these storms
will hold together as they progress eastward. Most of the lifting
support is forecast to remain in the immediate vicinity of the
shortwave trough, north of the forecast area, though a few
isolated storms may clip the northern-tier counties (near the
KS/OK and AR/MO borders) by or just after midnight tonight. With
sufficient elevated instability, moisture, and lift, strong to
marginally elevated severe storms are possible. Large hail (1" in
diameter) and damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph) will be the
primary hazards if storms can get organized and are able to cross
into the TSA WFO. Otherwise and elsewhere, a mostly quiet night is
anticipated with mild overnight lows bottoming out in the upper
50s to low-mid 60s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warmer and windier conditions will arrive Thursday as warm air
advection/downslope flow increase across eastern OK and northwest
AR. This occurs as two separate troughs eventually combine over
the Great Basin region late Thursday night. As low pressure
develops and strengthens across the High Plains Thursday morning,
the pressure gradient will also strengthen, causing southerly
winds to increase by midday, especially near and north of the I-40
corridor, as well as in the higher terrain locations in southeast
OK. Widespread wind gusts 30-35 mph are likely, with occasional
gusts 40+ mph at times. Held off on a Wind Advisory for now,
though cannot completely rule one out for at least portions of
northeast OK if trends in winds speeds increase even a little bit.
Will let the next shift re-analyze the latest model trends.

A transition to more active weather pattern occurs by Friday and
persists through the upcoming weekend as strong mid/upper-level
southwest flow develops aloft. At the surface, a slow-advancing
cold front will move into the forecast area beginning Friday
morning, becoming stalled near or just south of the I-44 corridor
by Saturday morning. The combination of the frontal boundary and
slow-progression upper-level trough will result in multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through at least
Sunday before the front and the trough finally move out of the
area. Strong to severe thunderstorms appear probable Friday
evening/night, possibly lingering into Saturday morning as storms
form along and ahead of the frontal boundary. At this time, large
hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main concern.
However, there will be a low tornado potential with storms that
initially form. Severe probabilities become a little more
uncertain during the day Saturday and Sunday and will depend on
the position of the front and how much instability is available in
the vicinity.

The potential for flooding/flash flooding/river flooding also
increases beginning Friday afternoon/evening and continues through
the weekend. Both NAEFS and ECMWF ENS show anomalous IVTs and
PWATs for the area, with PWATs increase to 1.25-1.5+ inches
through the weekend. Consensus in model/ensemble data continue to
suggest widespread rainfall amounts between 2 and 4 inches,
locally higher amounts possible, through Sunday, with the bulk of
the precipitation falling Friday evening through Sunday morning.
The WPC has included much of the forecast area in a Slight Risk
(at least 15% chance) of exceeding flash flood guidance on Friday
and all of the forecast area on Saturday. As far as river
flooding potential, the highest chance of river flooding will
occur for the Grand-Neosho River and Spring River Basins, the
Illinois River Basin, and the Poteau River Basin.

Much quieter weather is expected Monday and much of Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the region. Global models show another
shortwave trough impacting the area by Tuesday evening/Wednesday,
which may bring in the next best chance of widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the period for all
sites, with the exception of some MVFR cigs possibilities for KMLC
late tonight/tomorrow morning. Gusty south winds will subside a
little this evening and overnight tonight before picking back up
tomorrow morning gusting to 30+ knots at times during the day
tomorrow. A strong LLJ overnight tonight will also yield low level
wind shear conditions across all sites. Have maintained prob30s
for low chances of a shower or storm for KBVO, KXNA, and KROG. Low
level moisture return could lead to low cloud formation late
tonight into tomorrow morning across eastern Oklahoma. Have more
confidence in a cig being possible for KMLC so have introduced
MVFR cigs there for tomorrow morning with maintaining SCT mention
everywhere else where confidence in a ceiling is less.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  86  67  80 /  10   0  10  30
FSM   59  85  65  84 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   64  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   61  87  64  78 /  20   0  10  30
FYV   58  82  64  80 /   0   0   0  30
BYV   59  81  66  81 /  10  10   0  20
MKO   63  83  66  80 /   0   0   0  30
MIO   61  82  67  78 /  20  10   0  40
F10   64  85  66  81 /   0   0   0  30
HHW   61  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04