810
FXUS64 KLZK 212005
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
205 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
As a cold front pushes south across the state today, high
temperatures across northern portions of the state are maxing out in
the lower to mid 50s (a bit below the climatological average), while
high temperatures elsewhere in the state are closer to seasonal
averages, in the lower to upper 60s.
Breezy north-northwest flow is in place as upper ridging and High
pressure builds across the region. Wind gusts between 25-30 mph will
continue across roughly the northern half of the state through the
evening hours Thursday. The High center over the GoM will move east
of the area Saturday, and low-level flow will shift out of the
southwest.
Areas of frost are likely during the early morning hours across
portions of the state Friday and Saturday, as below-average
temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 20s to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
By Saturday night into early next week mid-level flow will become
more zonal with the western ridge shifting more eastward toward the
middle of the country. At the sfc, ridging will shift southeast away
from the state which will bring a return of low level S-SW flow.
Temperatures will warm to above normal values and moisture will
increase Sun-Mon.
A new H500 cyclone is expected to move east along the US/CA border
across the Great Lakes from Mon-Tue with its accompanying trough
extending south toward AR. At the sfc a cold front will move into
the state from the north and rain is expected to return to the
forecast. While temperatures will be warm ahead of this system, as
sfc ridging builds in from the NW temperatures will cool back down.
Southern parts of the state could see temperatures remain a bit
warmer.
Additional chances for rain will be seen at the end of the period as
more systems traverse the W-SW flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle as a reinforcing
cold front pushes south across the area in dry fashion through the
afternoon. Low-level winds will remain gusty form the northwest
through early evening before relaxing overnight. Other than some
high to mid clouds moving into the northwest portion of the area
Friday morning, skies will remain clear over the rest of the
forecast area as low-level northwest winds prevail.
BMX/05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 33 54 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 32 60 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 29 52 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 35 59 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 36 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 36 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 32 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 31 52 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 33 54 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 34 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 32 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 32 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 34 55 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...71
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