Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS64 KLZK 170518
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

THIS EVENING (Wednesday Evening) THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

At H500, an elongated ridge will be positioned over the Southern
Region of the CONUS including over the state of Arkansas in tandem
with a region of surface high pressure that will be meandering
across the region.

Expect a period of overall dry and fair weather conditions over this
forecast duration. A small window will be present early Thursday
morning for a shower or isolated thunderstorm along the the
Arkansas/Missouri border; however the chances of this are low as
activity is expected to be moving eastward out of Kansas during
Wednesday night, but this activity will be coerced by the presence
of a dryline and latest CAMS soundings show a pronounced CAP in
place so this activity may not form in the first place in Kansas or
even make it overnight eastward into Missouri. A outside window does
exist for a low chance of PoPs across the Arkansas/Missouri border,
but this wouldn`t be anything to write home about.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY:

A much defined pattern change exists over this period of the
forecast. At H500, a positively-tilted trof axis approaches Arkansas
from the northwest to begin this period with a closed low developing
over Missouri and ejecting northeastward at the base of the trof
through the weekend, but the pattern will remain overall unsettled
through next Wednesday with several shortwave pulses moving through
the overall pattern over the region. At the sfc, a cold front will
approach northwestern Arkansas during the day on Friday and PoPs
will begin to increase across northwestern, west-central, and north-
central Arkansas as the cold front slowly moves into close proximity
to the state of Arkansas. As the cold front slowly moves into
northwest Arkansas the boundary will become a stationary front
stalling across northwestern Arkansas on Saturday. It is during the
this time that PoPs will continue to be highest across the
northwestern half of the state. Into Sunday, the entire state will
get into the opportunity at rainfall via rain and isolated
thunderstorms (a few which may strong to severe) as a warm front
lifts into central Missouri opening up a modest, but present warm
sector across Arkansas. Into next week, a second stationary front
will become stalled across the I-40 corridor of Arkansas and the
entire state will continue to see increased PoP chances through next
Wednesday.

Expect rain and isolated thunderstorms to begin on Saturday across
northwest Arkansas on Friday afternoon and slowly push into central
Arkansas on Saturday. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has
outlined a 15% chance for severe weather (comparable to a slight
risk) for northwest, western, north-central, and portions of central
Arkansas with the parameter space overall a conditional threat for
severe weather. Sunday appears to be the best opportunity for the
state of Arkansas to experience a bout of severe weather as a warm
front will lift northward into central Missouri opening up an
aforementioned modest warm sector across Arkansas (the Storm
Prediction Center has outlined a 15% chance of severe weather
contour across most of Arkansas on Sunday). Specifics for Sunday
do remain too far in advance to nail down timing and particulars,
but a conditional threat for severe weather will exist, but all
hazards do appear to be possible.

Finally, not to be overlooked will be the chance for the state of
Arkansas to see a decent amount of rainfall over the period from
Friday afternoon through the middle of next week. At the moment,
guidance continues to show a strong signal of highest total rainfall
(preliminary totals show a range of 3 to 5+ inches of total rainfall
over the 5 to 6 day period) across northwestern and west-central
Arkansas which is a direct result of the cold front that stalls
across this area on Friday into Saturday. However, the river basins
across northern, northeastern, east-central, central, and southern
Arkansas can expect to add an additional 1 to 2+ inches of total
rainfall over this 5 to 6 day period with a few locations that may
approach the 3 inch mark. River rises will be likely, but the
magnitude of the rises are not expected to rival the extensive
rainfall event from earlier in April, but may raise a river gauge a
category and prolong rivers which remain above flood stage from
falling below flood stage by several days. This scenario will be
completely dependent on where specific river gauges have fallen to
as the rain begins to fall or flow into these basins once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
out of the south and southwest and could be gusty at times. Light
rain showers will be possible for northern terminals Thursday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  65  85  68 /  10   0  10  40
Camden AR         85  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       80  65  81  64 /  10   0  20  70
Hot Springs AR    83  64  86  68 /   0   0  10  20
Little Rock   AR  84  65  87  69 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     84  67  88  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      83  64  85  69 /   0   0  10  30
Mountain Home AR  79  64  83  65 /  10   0  20  70
Newport AR        81  66  85  69 /   0   0  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     84  66  88  69 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   83  64  85  67 /   0   0  20  40
Searcy AR         82  64  85  67 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      83  67  87  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73