Hot Springs Village, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS64 KLZK 110842
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
342 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure along the
Gulf Coast and an incoming cold front just to the north will
yield a gusty southwest wind today. With plenty of sunshine,
afternoon humidity levels will drop below 25 percent at many
locations in northern and western Arkansas. The combination of dry
air and breezy conditions will result in an elevated wildfire
danger. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued.

Otherwise, above average temperatures are in the forecast through
the near term. The front to the north will not make it into the
region due to ridging to the south. However, we will focus on
an incoming storm system to the west.

The system will be on our doorstep in the southern Plains
Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the system, moisture levels will
increase, and the atmosphere will destabilize. Most unstable
CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 Joules/kilogram may build from
northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This
will create a small window of opportunity for isolated severe
storms early Wednesday evening in the west. The main concerns
will be large hail and strong/damaging wind.

Showers/thunderstorms will spread across the region Wednesday
night. As the night wears on, chances for severe weather will
go down. This will not be a big rain event, with quarter to half
inch amounts common and locally higher totals to three quarters of
an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Main focus for the long term fcst remains on severe weather
potential over a large portion of the FA on Fri as a potent upper
level storm system traverses thru the Cntrl US.

Not much has changed on current thinking as of the 11/00Z suite of
deterministic and ensemble guidance. There is reasonable agreement
on the general placement and track of a strong H500 trof and asctd
sfc low, w/ only minor and typical variances in magnitudes of these
features. A few important factors remain in question for now,
including the timing of these features, and the asctd surface
moisture return on Fri.

Per the 11/00Z GFS/ECMWF solns, the Nwrd extent of sufficient sfc
moisture, and timing of how quickly moisture transport occurs is
still in moderate disagreement among the global model guidance. GFS
progs are indicative of a faster moving sfc low and narrower plume
of >60F dewpoints, mainly over the S/Ern and Ern portions of the
state by Fri evng. This scenario would lkly hinder the potential for
more widespread sfc based convection.

Conversely, ECMWF progs have been advertising a slower sfc low
movement speed, allowing for greater moisture transport, and >60F
dewpoints extending acrs at least the Srn half of the state by Fri
evng. This would have some implications on the magnitude and extent
of instability acrs the state, but reasonable MUCAPE progs of at
least 1000 J/kg are still prevalent over the Ern half of the state
thru the aftn to evng due to prominent WAA and broad synoptic lift.
It probably goes w/o saying, but this scenario would facilitate
better chances for sfc based convection, and a more widespread
severe weather threat, from both QLCS segments and discrete warm
sector development.

Latest blended ensemble mean guidance suggests a middle ground of
these solns that could be thought of as a reasonable most lkly
outcome. Probabilities of >60F dewpoints were in excess of 30 to 40
percent over at least the S/Ern half of the state, and greater probs
towards Ern to S/Ern AR, and this "middle ground" scenario would
certainly still foster a favorable environment for severe weather.

Details such as possible storm modes are still unclear for now,
largely due to the uncertainty surrounding the fcst warm sector, but
should become more evident as a better consensus is reached in the
mid to short range guidance.

For now, the key takeaway remains moderate confidence on the
potential for an all-hazards severe weather episode acrs a large
portion of the state, and particularly the Ern half of the state,
Fri aftn to Fri night.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a significant gradient
wind event appears possible over much of the Srn Cntrl US, including
the greater Arkansas region given the proximity and track of the
fcst sfc low. Strong and gusty winds, lkly similar in magnitude (if
not greater in some locations) to the recent March 4th wind event wl
be possible over much of the state on Fri, and possibly into early
Sat mrng.

Thru the remainder of the PD (next weekend), drier air is expected
to filter into the state in the wake of the departing sfc low. Sfc
high pressure should settle in over the Srn Cntrl US, and promote a
warm/dry pattern locally w/ settled weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A mostly clear sky/VFR conditions will be noted Tuesday/Tuesday
evening. The wind will be 10 to 15 knots with 20 to 25 knot and
locally higher gusts on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  51  77  55 /   0   0   0  70
Camden AR         77  50  78  55 /   0   0  10  70
Harrison AR       78  51  78  52 /   0   0   0  50
Hot Springs AR    75  51  76  54 /   0   0  10  80
Little Rock   AR  77  52  78  57 /   0   0   0  80
Monticello AR     77  51  78  59 /   0   0   0  70
Mount Ida AR      76  51  76  52 /   0   0  20  70
Mountain Home AR  80  50  78  53 /   0   0   0  50
Newport AR        77  50  75  57 /   0   0   0  70
Pine Bluff AR     77  52  78  57 /   0   0   0  80
Russellville AR   80  50  79  53 /   0   0  10  70
Searcy AR         78  47  77  54 /   0   0   0  80
Stuttgart AR      76  51  76  57 /   0   0   0  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...46