Bella Vista, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS64 KTSA 111639
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

  - Near average temperatures and pleasant weather Today; Warming
    trend into the weekend, with Sunday expected to be the warmest
    day of 2025 thus far.

  - Limited fire weather concerns in northeast Oklahoma on
    Sunday, with gusty southerly winds and well above normal
    temperatures ahead of a cold front.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return by mid-late week
    next week, along with another cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 917 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A high pressure axis will shift southeastward across the region
today, leading to pleasant conditions, including temperatures near
to just above seasonal normals, sunny skies and a noticeable
northerly wind that is not too gusty. Only modest updates to the
gridded database have been made, largely to move afternoon
temperatures toward the latest short-term blended guidance. Enjoy
these conditions if you are able.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The upper pattern will be predominantly NW flow over the Plains
thru the forecast. A pair of shortwaves will traverse from the Pac
NW southeastward across the country, pushing thru cold fronts
Monday and again on Thursday.

A LLTR expands from the High Plains to the east over the forecast
area Sunday ahead of an approaching front, in response to a
downslope flow regime. As a result, forecast highs are expected to
be the warmest of 2025 thus far, with points from Tulsa and
Bartlesville westward reaching the upper 80s and possibly close to
90. Winds will remain gusty, in the 30 to 35 mph range, which will
raise fire weather concerns to limited (recent rains and green up
limit overall potential).

Cold front pushes thru Monday morning and is expected to come thru
dry. Highs will drop back to near or slightly below average across
the north behind the front. North winds will be gusty for a time
behind the front before backing off toward the end of the day.

Models show a signal for WAA storms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with retreating front mainly across NE OK. Storm chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday with another cold front.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are likely through the period. Gusty northerly
winds at the W AR sites and MLC will diminish late afternoon into
the evening, with a shift to southerly winds at all sites except
FSM by mid morning tomorrow. Expect gustiness at the E OK sites
beginning mid to late morning tomorrow as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  46  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   72  45  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   74  46  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  41  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  39  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   64  41  72  56 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   72  44  75  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  42  73  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   73  46  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  46  73  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22