Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

436
FXUS65 KTWC 110910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Record breaking heat is likely today under a strong ridge of high
pressure aloft. Well above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through much of next week. Breezy conditions can be
expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An abnormally hot and dry period for this time of year will
continue today, thanks to an amplified ridge centered from the
desert southwest through the northern Rockies and high plains. The
height anomaly associated with this ridge indicates a strong
chance of breaking records, as the 500mb height on the previous
evening observed sounding exceeds the max 500mb height in the SPC
climatology of upper air observations in Tucson for the day. What
that means for today is a likely chance at the earliest 100
degree day in Tucson on record (76% chance from the NBM), with
highs elsewhere across desert locations of southeastern Arizona in
lower 90s to around 100.

By Saturday the ridge axis will have shifted east, however
positive height anomalies remain. As modestly stronger west to
southwest flow will develop over the region in this pattern
transition, it`s likely breezy winds will arrive Saturday while
hot and dry conditions remain in southeastern Arizona. 15 to 25
mph winds with afternoon relative humidity values dropping to 3
percent will create critical fire weather conditions. This is
especially compounded by record dry conditions impacting fuels
over the previous months. In coordination with surrounding
offices, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Saturday for much
of southeastern Arizona. Similar conditions are expected again on
Sunday with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect.

Ensemble modeling favors west to southwest flow remaining over
southeastern Arizona early next week as an upstream trough
develops over the eastern Pacific. While the trough sits upstream,
persistent ridging over Arizona will continue to provide above
normal temperatures with daily highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
While this pattern doesn`t favor precipitation, a shortwave
kicking out of the trough early next week may produce some
cloudiness with a non-zero chance of very light precipitation.
At this point the forecast remains dry. Depending on the strength
of the shortwave, increased associated breeziness may produce
elevated fire weather concerns again. At some point this trough
should move into the region late next week, however again the
precipitation signal remains weak.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/12Z.

Generally SKC through the period with a few high cirrus possible.
Surface winds light and terrain driven through the forecast
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions and unseasonably hot temperatures are expected
today through much of next week, while increasing winds will
likely produce critical fire weather conditions this weekend.
Minimum relative humidities will be down to around 3 percent in
desert locations and under 10 percent in mountains through the
weekend, while winds should increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
35 mph. Even in areas that see the lighter end of the wind speed
spectrum will likely see elevated fire weather concerns with the
current dry state of fuels. Overnight recoveries will be fairly
poor as well with maximum relative humidities only rising into the
teens to around 20 percent. With these factors a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch remains in
effect on Sunday.

Though potentially not as windy as this weekend, breeziness early
next week may continue to bring elevated fire weather concerns as
warm and dry conditions persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures are forecast
today through the weekend.

DATE                         Apr 11           Apr 12           Apr 13
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       101  99/2023      99  96/1988      94  96/1963
AJO                       100 100/2023      98 100/1936      92 100/1936
KITT PEAK                  82  79/1989      80  75/1988      75  78/1962
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         101  99/2023      97  98/1985      92 100/1985
PICACHO PEAK               96 100/2023      96  97/2008      90  97/2008
SAFFORD AG STATION         97  95/2023      98  93/1960      93  91/1992
SIERRA VISTA FD            93  89/2018      90  90/2018      85  88/1963
TOMBSTONE                  93  91/2018      91  91/2018      86  93/1992
WILLCOX                    93 91/1946       92 92/1946       88  90/2006

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ150>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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