Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

807
FXUS65 KFGZ 162317
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
417 PM MST Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring dramatic changes to the
weather across northern Arizona starting Thursday with increasing
southwest winds and much cooler temperatures. Chances of rain
showers and snow showers increase Thursday night in the northwest
and will spread across northern Arizona on Friday. Showers will
linger in Apache County into Saturday night. Warmer and drier
weather will make a quick comeback next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure moving south out of Canada
into the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest this afternoon
will dive south and merge/phase with a large area of off the
coast of California. This will move across Arizona Thursday
through Saturday morning. Ridging/zonal flow will then move over
the State from Sunday will into next week.

Impacts: Increasing winds is expected on Thursday with dry
conditions. This has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning
for areas of northern Arizona for areas north of the Mogollon Rim
to the Four Corners Area on Thursday. A wind advisory advisory has
also been issued for areas along the Mogollon Rim to the Kaibab
Plateau northeastward for Thursday into Thursday evening.

Chances for precipitation will start over the Kaibab Plateau
Thursday afternoon and will then spread southeast and east across
northern Arizona into Saturday morning. Snow levels will start
around 8000 feet and then lower to around 5000 feet by Saturday
morning. The higher elevations of the Kaibab Plateau and San
Fransisco Peaks could see 5-10" of new snowfall, The White
Mountains could see 2-5" over the higher terrain. These totals are
for Thursday night through Saturday evening. Keep in mind that
these snow amounts may not last through the whole period as
melting could occur between the heavier snowfalls. Heavier bands
of snow could allow for quick accumulation. For the lower
elevations, snow may melt almost as quickly as it falls. Lower
elevation areas look to receive rainfall ranging from 0.20-0.40".

Daytime highs are forecast to rebound back up to the 60s for
higher elevation locations and 70s and 80s for lower elevation
locations by Sunday afternoon. Near average temperatures and dry
conditions are expected into next week with daily afternoon
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 17/00Z through Friday 18/00Z...VFR
conditions are expected under FEW-SCT middle and upper-level
clouds, increasing by Thursday afternoon. Winds are S-SW 10-20
kts with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming S 5-15 kts after 03Z
Thursday. Starting 15-17Z Thursday, S-SW winds will increase to
15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts, strongest along/north of the
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Patchy blowing dust may reduce
visibilities at times in northeast Arizona.

OUTLOOK...Friday 18/00Z through Sunday 20/00Z...VFR conditions
through 04Z Friday, then periods of MVFR-IFR in widespread
SHRA/SHSN spreading southward through 06-12Z Saturday. Chance of
SHRA/SHSN continues mainly eastern AZ through Saturday afternoon
before ending. Wind gradually decreasing to 10-15 kts Thursday
evening, then SW-W 15-25 kts gusting to 30-40 kts on Friday. W-NW
winds 10-20 kts Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Friday...A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for Thursday across most of Eastern Arizona, with Near-
Critical fire weather conditions expected elsewhere today and
Thursday. Fire weather concerns end on Friday as widespread rain and
high elevation snow showers enter the region. Widespread minimum RH
is at or below 15% today, then below 15% east of the Mogollon Rim
and in the White Mountains on Thursday. Winds are southwest 10-20
mph with gusts up to 35 mph today, then southwest through west 15-25
mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph on Thursday and Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered showers will linger through
midday Saturday, then a warming and drying trend thereafter. Winds
are W-NW 15 mph or less on Saturday turning SW-W on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/
Thursday for AZZ004-006-010>017-039-040.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for AZZ110>114-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff