Prescott Valley, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS65 KFGZ 240521
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1021 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and windier weather is expected for this
upcoming week. Dry conditions look to prevail on Sunday, with
chances for showers increasing during the first-half of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Southwest winds remain breezy across northern Arizona
this evening with gusts as high as 25 mph. Winds should continue
to weaken as decoupling takes place overnight, however, gusty
winds will likely persist throughout the night for locations
directly northeast of higher terrain. Low temperatures are
forecast to be a bit warmer tonight compared to the last few
nights given the winds and gradually increasing moisture. 700 mb
winds will continue to increase into Sunday in response to the
pressure gradient tightening as low pressure passes by towards the
north. Even though moisture increases, precipitation chances will
remain limited to locations north of Arizona overnight and
through Sunday. Gusty southwest winds become widespread early
Sunday afternoon with gusts of 30-40 mph. Winds should decrease
Sunday evening with temperatures remaining near average. The
current forecast remains on track with no changes needed at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /410 PM MST/...Today...Heights begin to fall today
as a trough ejects off the Pacific into the Great Basin. Slightly
cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected today as
a result, along with some breezy winds from the south/southwest.
Dry conditions are expected to prevail, as any moisture from this
system looks to remain well to the north. The only potential for
showers could be a very light sprinkle or two on the Kaibab
Plateau late this evening.

Sunday...Winds increase through the day Sunday as northern Arizona
remains situated under an upper-level jet max. Winds near 700 mb
look to approach around 40-50 kts, which combined with mixing during
the afternoon should allow surface gusts to approach 30-40 mph. Some
locally stronger gusts upwards of 45-50 mph will be possible in the
typical downslope areas off the Mogollon Rim. While these localized
spots do look to exceed Wind Advisory criteria, given the more limited
areal extent of the 40+ mph gusts, an advisory does not appear needed.

Moisture does increase over the region as well, but still rather
limited. Any moisture looks to be confined largely to the far
northern portions of the state. Thus, any chances for showers or
sprinkles will be limited to the Kaibab Plateau.

Monday through Friday...An unsettled pattern remains into next
week, with Arizona largely under westerly zonal flow. Temperatures
will remain on the cooler side, but largely typical for this time
of year.

By the middle of next week, a shortwave looks to just barely graze
Arizona as it moves through Utah and Colorado. Moisture looks to be
a bit more plentiful with this system, so chances for showers look a
bit better starting Tuesday but especially on Wednesday. Even with
temperatures a little cooler, much of the precipitation will be in
the form of rain. As 700 mb temperatures around 0C to +2C will keep
snow levels above 10,000 feet initially. Cold air advection aloft
does increase later in the day Wednesday, with 700 mb temps ranging
from 0C across central Arizona to -5C over northeastern Arizona.
Thus, snow levels could fall into the 6000-7000 foot range by the
afternoon, but with surface temperatures will mostly above freezing,
little accumulation is expected.

Thereafter, cooler and drier air looks to set in across northern
Arizona for to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 24/06Z through Monday 25/06Z...VFR expected.
SW winds 5-15 kts through 15Z, then increasing to 10-20 kts with
gusts 25-35 kts. Winds become less than 10 kts after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 25/06Z through Wednesday 27/06Z...SW winds
5-10 kts on Monday, increasing to 10-20 kts after 18Z/Tuesday.
ISO -SHRA/-SHSN mainly north of KGCN on Monday with additional
showers possible on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry and windy conditions are
expected on Sunday with southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-
40 mph. Winds become lighter on Monday. Near normal temperatures
both days with a slight chance of showers over the Kaibab Plateau.

Tuesday through Thursday...A low pressure system will bring cooler
temperatures and a chance for light rain and snow showers on Tuesday
and Wednesday before drying out on Thursday. Best chances are along
and north of the I-40 corridor. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday, becoming lighter on Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Humphreys
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff