Oro Valley, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

600
FXUS65 KTWC 240910
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures will continue to be above normal this week with
dry conditions. Breezy winds are likely today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level pattern remains virtually unchanged from yesterday
over the western CONUS as a strong Pacific Northwest trough sits
north of desert southwest ridging. A shortwave rounding the base
of the northwest trough will be associated with a jet streak
aloft, which will combine with a sub-tropical jet pushing over
southern Arizona to produce a stream of high level clouds over the
region today. An eastward shift of the ridge axis today will
bring high temperatures down around 3-6 degrees from yesterday,
but highs will still remain unseasonably warm. With the upper
level jet nosing in, a modestly tightened pressure gradient will
bring breezy westerly winds today, especially in Graham, Cochise,
and Greenlee counties where 10-15 mph sustained winds and gusts up
to 25 mph are likely.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal through much of this
week as broad ridging sits to the south. Highs should rise back
into the lower 80s for Tucson-Nogales and western locations before
dropping around 5 degrees again on Wednesday as an embedded wave
crosses to the north. Breezy winds again along with a slight
chance of light White Mountain area rain/snow will accompany this
wave.

Upper level heights should come down a bit Thursday onwards as
southeastern Arizona sits between a southward pushing sub-tropical
jet to the east and weak Pacific trough to the west. This keeps
temperatures just a couple degrees above normal through the
weekend, then introduces very low but non-zero precipitation
chances Saturday and Sunday. Across the deterministic suite the
potential Pacific trough looks to be lacking the upper level flow
to produce more notable QPF probabilities, with just low chances
at a few hundredths of an inch currently being advertised by the
global ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION...

BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. Terrain
driven winds this morning will become southwest to westerly after
24/18Z. Southeastern locations such as KDUG-KOLS will see 10-15 kt
sustained winds with gusts up to 25 kts, with lighter winds at
KTUS. Winds become light and terrain driven again after 25/03Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry again today with breezy conditions, generally in
eastern zones. Winds will become southwest to westerly this
afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph range with gusts up to 25 mph in
Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise counties. Minimum relative
humidities will range from 10 to 15 percent this afternoon.
Temperatures remain warmer than normal this week, but a modest
increase in humidity is expected this week compared to today,
especially Wednesday through Friday where minimum relative
humidities will be in the 20 to 35 percent range. Winds should be
breezy again on Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
Minimum relative humidity values should in
$$

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