Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

665
FXUS65 KFGZ 211728
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1028 AM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and much warmer weather is in store the rest of
this work week. Temperatures will begin to decrease over the
weekend while southerly winds increase and become breezy each
afternoon. A chance for mostly rain showers will return on Sunday
and continue into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...High clouds will continue to traverse northern Arizona
through the morning, with decreasing cloud cover by the afternoon.
Afternoon highs today will be running about 10 degrees above normal
along and south of the Mogollon Rim. While to the north, temperatures
should remain a bit cooler, but still typical for this time of year.

Overnight forecast package remains on track, with no changes needed
this morning. Previous discussion continues below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /412 AM MST/...Today through Saturday...Arizona will
remain under a dry westerly flow aloft. The main influence of this
pattern will be to deliver a mild air mass with much warmer daytime
temperatures than have been recently observed. A trough off the
Pacific Northwest coast will start to dip southward on Saturday
with some increase in southwest surface winds due to strengthening
pressure gradients. Other than that, varying amounts of high
level cirrus clouds.

For Sunday through Wednesday...The Pacific northwest trough dips
further south bringing increased cloud cover and a cooler air mass
which will result daytime temperatures returning to near seasonal
average. It will remain breezy as pressure gradients will remain
elevated with the approaching trough. Associated with the
influence of the trough will be increasing low level moisture and
increased chances for showers, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
The snow level will remain elevated from Sunday into Tuesday,
generally 8,000-9,500 feet potentially lowering to 7,000-8,000
feet by Wednesday. Recent model trends have been for the trough
to remain further north. The further north position doesn`t change
the forecast much in terms of the cloud, wind and temperatures
but potential precipitation chances/amounts are less certain and
have been trending lower. Stay tuned for updates as there remains
the potential for some holiday travel impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 21/18Z through Friday 22/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with SCT-BKN high-level clouds above 18,000 feet AGL.
Expect light winds, under 10 kts, and variable between the east
and southwest.

OUTLOOK...Friday 22/18Z through Sunday 24/18Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Conditions
worsen on Sunday with increasing cloud cover and chances for
scattered -SHRA/-SHSN across Coconino County. Winds will remain
light and variable on Friday, becoming southwest 15-25 kts for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Above average temperatures are
forecast for today and Friday, with minimum RH values ranging
between 5% to 20%. Winds will be light and variable each day.

Saturday through Monday...A cooling trend will occur over the
weekend and into next week. Dry conditions forecast for Saturday,
then slight chances for showers return early Sunday and continue
through Monday. Look for southwest winds 10 to 25 mph Saturday and
Sunday, before slightly weakening on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/McCollum
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff