El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS65 KPSR 240934
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
234 AM MST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will prevail over the next several days while
temperatures continue to run above normal for this time of year.
The only noticeable change will be a increase in cloud cover over
the Desert Southwest. A weak shortwave trough will pass north of
the region during the middle portion of the upcoming week, but
precipitation chances should remain confined to northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current atmospheric analysis reveals quasi-zonal flow stretching
across the Desert Southwest resulting in rather benign conditions
for our forecast area. This setup will persist through the end of
the weekend and into the start of the next work week, promoting a
continuation of quiet and rather pleasant conditions across the
region. The most noticeable change in day-to-day conditions will
be an abundance of mid and upper level cloud cover thanks to an
increase in moisture flux throughout the top half of the
atmosphere. With this thicker cloud cover overhead, temperatures
over the next few days will be slightly cooler compared to the
days prior, with lower desert highs ranging generally in the lower
to mid 70s. By Tuesday, positive height anomalies are expected to
fill in over the southwestern CONUS, which will help to provide a
slight bump up in day-to-day temperatures as lower desert highs
are forecasted to run between the upper 70s and lower 80s.

As we head into the middle portion of the week, the ensemble
consensus is that a weak shortwave trough will pass through the
Intermountain West on Wednesday. Little to no sensible weather
changes are anticipated with this disturbance for our area as the
best moisture and lift will remain to the north. An accompanying dry
cold front will help to drop temperatures a couple of degrees on
Wednesday, but regional highs will continue to run above normal for
this part of November.

Speaking of above normal temperatures, model clusters are in decent
agreement regarding a strong ridge sliding off the eastern Pacific
and over the western CONUS late in the latter portion of the week
and into the weekend. Depending on how this ridge progresses and
how amplified it becomes, high temperatures across the Desert
Southwest during this timeframe could range between 5-10 degrees
above normal. Regardless, the current forecast trends point
towards above normal temperatures persisting through the end of
the month and potentially into the start of December.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected through Sunday evening,
with increasing mid and high cloud cover through the course of the
TAF period. Light and diurnal winds, AOB 8 kt, with extended
periods of variability and even calm conditions, will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warmer than normal conditions will persist across the
region for the next several days. Winds will follow generally
light and diurnal tendencies through Tuesday before some areas,
mainly across parts of the Arizona high terrain and Lower Colorado
River Valley, pick up some marginal breeziness Wednesday and
Thursday. Regional moisture content will be on the increase today
with MinRH values between 25-35% across the western districts.
Values across the eastern districts will only be 15-20% this
afternoon, but will increase to 20-25% by Monday afternoon. Fair
to good overnight recoveries can be expected through the middle
portion of the week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...Young/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...RW