Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

567
FXAK67 PAJK 112255
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
255 PM AKDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- Light showers continue through Friday night.
- Cooler 850 temperatures allow for mixed precipitation in the
  northern panhandle.
- A strong low south of Kodiak Island sends a Gale force front
  over the panhandle Saturday night.

Light showers will continue into tonight across the panhandle.
Between showers, short breaks in the precipitation will occur.
This morning, 850 mb temperatures decreased to around -6 to -7 C
allowing for snow and mixed precipitation at times across the
panhandle. These lower upper level temperatures will continue
keeping chances of snow for the north and mixed precipitation for
the south. Snow accumulations will be very minimal with day time
temperatures in the mid 40s. Any accumulated snow will melt with
day time high temperatures.

Winds have started to decrease throughout the day and will continue
to stay around gentle to moderate breezes into early Saturday. Late
Saturday morning through early afternoon winds will increase as a
Gale force front makes its way toward the panhandle from its parent
low located south of Kodiak Island. Strong gales will develop over
the NE Gulf Coast due to a barrier jet supporting the winds. Icy
Strait and southward will see increased winds as well. These winds
will start to increase Saturday evening to fresh to strong breezes
and continue into Sunday.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...The end of the weekend ushers
in another round windy, wet, and warm conditions to the panhandle. A
low near Kodiak Island will swing a front across the gulf waters and
into the panhandle. Gale force winds along the advancing front with
strong gales due to a barrier jet as it near the NE Gulf Coast. Low
probability of storm force winds  with the barrier jet but still
shown by some models such as the GFS. Inner channels from Clarence
Strait to Icy Strait are expected to reach strong breezes to near
gales from the southeast. Seas to maximize around 15-25 ft, with
lower amounts near the southern tip of PoW Island and highest wave
heights near the NE gulf coast.

Precipitation aimed mainly towards the NE gulf coast down to the
Juneau area, with expected totals of 1.0 - 2.5 inches in a 24 hour
period. Lesser amounts are expected in the southern panhandle. Still
watching for a mesoscale feature moving along the front towards the
southern panhandle, which would bring much higher amounts, up to 2.5
inches in 24 hours, but likelihood of this happening are around 25%.

Snow is minimal for this system at lower elevations, with only
chances for accumulating snow being the Klondike Highway near White
Pass. As of now guidance going anywhere from none to 10 inches over
a 24 hours period. For now getting about 5 inches total of wet snow.
However with snow levels rising to upwards of 2600-3000 ft and WAA
aloft when the higher QPF amounts occur, snow accumulation may be
severely limited to possibly none at all.

Behind the front as the main low moves into the NE Gulf sharp CAA
from the west driving up CAPE in the gulf waters, particularly near
the NE gulf coast. While no widespread lightning is expected due to
a majority of the CAPE being very low level, the stray lightning
strike is not out of the question.

Active pattern continues for the week with next strong low tracking
in from the west Wednesday with another potential for moderate to
heavy rain. After this system tracks east into the end of the week
indications of shift in weather with lower probability of
precipitation and higher winds.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR and MVFR conditions continue as we head
into tonight as showers have been moving into the panhandle
behind the front that passed over today. There is a chance for
some locations to drop to IFR due to these showers passing
through, particularly due to the colder temperatures mixing down
to the surface and allowing the precipitation fall as a rain snow
mix, which has caused a few drops to VIS already today. However,
the majority of the panhandle will only see drops to MVFR
following the lowered cloud ceilings as the showers move through.
The northern panhandle will see less of this precipitation and
remain relatively clearer for flying conditions, however Skagway
and Haines will continue to see some gusty winds until tonight
when the pressure gradient begins to weaken. The southern and
central panhandle are to be most impacted by the showers moving in
and will see the heaviest showers, with some potential for a rain
snow mix for tonight even into parts of POW.

&&

.MARINE...
In the Gulf: Winds and waves will decrease Friday night before
increasing Saturday morning as a low south of Kodiak Island sends
a Gale force front toward the panhandle. Tomorrow, Gales will
develop over the gulf of Alaska moving northeast. These winds will
increase to strong Gales as the front reaches the NE Gulf. The
northern coast will see Gale force winds beginning tomorrow
evening with strong breezes to near Gales along the rest of the
coast. In the northern gulf waves will build to 20 to 25 ft with a
southerly swell. Gale force winds will remain in the Gulf Sunday
beginning to diminish Sunday night into Monday.

Inside Channels: Winds along the inner channels will decrease
tonight, to gentle and moderate breezes, and remain steady until
the Gale force front reaches the panhandle Saturday night. As the
front starts to move across the panhandle, inner channels Icy
Strait and southward will see increased wind speeds. Saturday
night into Sunday a gradually increase to strong breezes will
occur across these channels. These winds will decrease once again
Sunday evening through Monday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-643-644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...EAB

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