Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

138
FXAK68 PAFC 071347
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A first glance at the satellite imagery this morning, one might
think they are looking at imagery from this past January or
February with the deep trough over the eastern Bering, a strong
front tapping moisture from the tropical Pacific, and a strong low
just south of Kodiak. This current storm will bring widespread
rain to most of Southcentral as well as strong winds especially
along the coast where some marine areas have Storm Warnings out
for today. This storm will peak in intensity today and then weaken
as it moves through Southcentral through Sunday. However, there
is also a cold, upper level low that is digging southward through
western Alaska today which will is likely to phase with the upper
low of this current Gulf system. The result will be for the re-
development of rain on Sunday not too long after the rain from the
first system ends. Therefore a wet weekend is expected for most
of Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A North Pacific low sits south of Kodiak Island and will spend
today pushing into the southern Gulf of Alaska. This will keep a
northerly offshore pattern across much of Southwest Alaska this
weekend. Breezy conditions are expected across much of Southwest
Alaska through early Sunday morning. Strongest winds, reaching
near small craft (25 knots/29 mph) are likely along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Western Capes as well as along the Alaska
Peninsula south of King Salmon. A colder and drier airmass is
pulled south across the Southwest Mainland keeping temperatures on
the cooler side through this weekend. Little to no chances for
precipitation overall, however, some upslope rain showers are
possible along the mountain ranges.

Further west, high pressure extends across a large chunk of the
Bering Sea today and tomorrow with a weak front moving over the
Western Aleutians this morning. Areas under the high pressure
ridge can expected to see widespread marine stratus and areas of
fog. Along the front anticipate widespread rain showers stretching
across the Western and Central Aleutians today into Sunday
morning. The stratus and fog will continue until the ridge
erodes, which will occur gradually over the coming days as several
waves run up against the ridge`s western flank. A second,
stronger front moves into the western Bering Sunday evening,
bringing renewed widespread precipitation (moderate to heavy at
times) on, there is potential for a broad swath of 25+ kt winds
with a small corridor of gale-force winds. Light rain is possible
for the Pribilof Islands as early as Monday afternoon as the low
works further east with precipitation making it to the
southwestern mainland for Tuesday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The upper level weather pattern smooths out and changes to a more
organized set of waves through the forecast period. A closed
upper low exits Southwestern Alaska across the Gulf of Alaska to
near Queen Victoria Island by the end of the week. After the
passage of some moderately strong shortwaves, an extended trough
forms over most of the Bering from the Arctic across the Chukotsk
Peninsula to the North Pacific. A fairly well clustered blend of
GFS / ECMWF UKMET and Canadian models carry the larger features,
with the ECMWF taking over towards the weekend.

Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms over the Southern
Interior, mostly South of the Alaska Range continues through
Friday. A well developed surface low and front over the Central
Aleutians and Bering spread moderate rain across the region into
Southwest Alaska, diminishing Thursday over Western Alaska. A
second low and front follow on its heels over the Western
Aleutians and Bering, diminishing late Wednesday. A strong North
Pacific low and front brings moderate to heavy rain starting in
the Western Aleutians Thursday, and marching across to Southwest
Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island for Friday.

- Kutz

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions continue through about late morning (18z),
after which ceilings will very likely drop to MVFR in conjunction
with light rain. Lower confidence in ceilings and rain chances by
late afternoon (00z), as there is uncertainty about whether rain
will continue to spill over the Chugach Front Range through about
midnight tonight (09z), or if ceilings will improve to VFR after
the front has exited.

Southeasterly winds aloft with variable surface winds will
contribute to weak to moderate wind shear through the early
morning. Then, gusty northerly winds move over the terminal
through much of today. By late afternoon/early evening, winds
weaken and veer from the south.

&&


$$