Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXAK68 PAFC 140249
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
649 PM AKDT Tue May 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

The forecast remains on track through the short-term period. After
clear and calm conditions today, clouds work back in for tonight
ahead of the next system moving in for Wednesday and Thursday. A
strong low pressure system will move south of the Alaska Peninsula
Wednesday while sending a strong front northward across the Gulf.
This will bring gale-force winds across the marine areas, with a
period of storm-force winds through the Barren Islands Wednesday
afternoon through the evening. Light to moderate rain will spread
north from Kodiak Island Wednesday morning to the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound, particularly Western Prince
William Sound, through Wednesday evening. Rain will linger across
the coast through Friday as numerous shortwaves within the
broader upper-level trough lift across the Gulf. Additionally,
expect another round of southeasterly gap winds through the
mountain gaps both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings.
Inland areas, while they will be cloudy, should be downsloped and
remain mostly dry. However, showers are possible across the higher
terrain and interior mountain ranges. Temperatures are likely to
remain slightly below normal.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Friday)...

A vertically stacked low anchors a long-wave trough which
encompasses the Bering Sea and much of the north-central Pacific.
A weak surface low is lifting northward toward the central
Aleutians (roughly toward Seguam Island), with a frontal system
lifting northward across the eastern Bering Sea. There is a fairly
wide band of southeasterly small craft winds associated with this
front, extending from the Eastern Aleutians (Unalaska) to the
Pribilof Islands along with a narrower band of rain. Meanwhile,
another low has formed over the North Pacific near the left exit
region of the subtropical jetstream. This low is deepening as it
tracks northward toward the Alaska Peninsula. Just downstream of
this, a high amplitude short-wave ridge extends from the East
pacific north-northwest to Kodiak Island and Southwest AK. While
there are some showers in the Kuskokwim delta this afternoon, dry
conditions prevail for most of the rest of Southwest AK under
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. A cool air mass is still in
place (in the wake of the cold front that moved through last
night), so temperatures are fairly cool in the 40s to around 50.

The forecast remains on track, with some minor adjustments to
timing and strength of key features. The low headed for the Alaska
Peninsula will produce the most impactful weather the next couple
days. A strong front out ahead of the low will lift across the
Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay late tonight through
Wednesday and stall over Bristol Bay. Expect widespread strong and
gusty easterly winds for nearly all of the Bristol bay region on
Wednesday, with the strongest winds through bays and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula. Downslope flow will limit rainfall from King
Salmon northward, with the bulk of rain falling further south of
King Salmon along the Alaska Peninsula as well as north and west
of Dillingham. Strong and gusty gap winds are also expected on the
back side of the low along the southern Alaska Peninsula (False
Pass, Cold Bay, and King Cove). As downslope winds diminish
Wednesday night and Thursday, areas of light rain will spread
across most of the Bristol Bay region. Meanwhile, drier and warmer
conditions will prevail for the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Valley the next couple days, though with considerable cloud cover.
Conditions will be fairly quiet over the Bering Sea and Aleutians
with just some showers as the low over the central Bering tracks
southward to the Aleutians on Thursday before dissipating. By
Friday, the only feature left will be a weak low in the eastern
Bering Sea, with overall quiet weather region-wide.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A broad upper level low over Southern Alaska with multiple
troughs and shortwaves rotating through the pattern carries the
forecast period. The pattern smooths out with an elongated trough
from the Central Aleutians to Southeast Alaska by Tuesday. Most of
the active weather is initially expected across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula and spreads into and across Kodiak Island and
the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. Forecast models are in decent
agreement with the larger scale features, leaving the smaller
surface details in greatest uncertainty.

A weak front spreads rain from the Eastern Aleutians into the
AKPEN Saturday. A well developed low and front approaches from the
North Pacific for Sunday, and brings more rain from the Eastern
Aleutians across Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. In the West,
a developing low and front out of Kamchatka pushes rain into the
Western Aleutians and Bering Saturday, and continues along the
Aleutians through late Monday. Another strong North Pacific low
and front approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering for Tuesday.

- Kutz


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected. Light westerly winds this evening
will shift south to southeasterly out of Turnagain Arm tonight.
Winds will increase across the terminal with peak gusts up to 25
to 30 kts late Wednesday afternoon. Light northerly winds return
across Anchorage late Wednesday night around 09Z.

&&


$$