Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXAK67 PAJK 172336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Conditions today have been very location dependent with the
Juneau area and parts of the Northern panhandle experiencing
freezing drizzle while farther south, clouds have stayed away for
most of the day. Clouds are expected to increase across the area
this evening as the high pressure that was over the Gulf of Alaska
gives way to a shortwave trough moving in this evening. This
trough is expected to bring precipitation to locations mainly
north of Angoon. Current thinking is that most places will see
only a couple of inches of snow. Juneau and the Northern Panhandle
could see some wintry mix during this evening with freezing
drizzle already being reported today. Any freezing precipitation
does occur will have minimal accumulations and only see a glaze.

.LONG TERM...
Sunday morning a high amplitude ridge will eject east into Canada
quickly followed by a weakening long wave trough. While most of
the moisture associated with this system will be steered into
south- central Alaska, expecting precipitation to spread across
our region through the end of the weekend into Monday. Primary
challenge over mid-range is the maintenance of cool surface
temperatures in the north and how that translates to snowfall
potential, with the main snow window overnight Sunday. For now,
the current forecast reflects cooler temperatures and longer
duration light northerly winds, leading to 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall for the Icy Strait corridor, and 3 to 6 inches for some
portions of the highway system Sunday night into Monday. Much
higher confidence for the Klondike and Haines highways, with low
confidence for the Icy Strait Corridor. If we are able to scrub
out colder air faster than anticipated, expect much less snowfall
totals.

For mariners transiting the gulf, early Sunday easterly gale
force winds build along our coast, with the severe-gales to storm
force winds along Kayak Island/Cape Suckling. Underlying southerly
swell with fresh seas 18-22ft out of the southeast, highest seas
along Cape Suckling likely reaching 25ft if we can sustain storm
force for a few hours longer than forecasted. Monday expect
southwest fresh breezes, seas diminishing leaving a southwest
swell 12ft dropping to 8ft. Another gale force low approaches
later Tuesday driving gales, to potentially severe- gales, along
the northern coast through Wednesday increasing significant
heights back up 17 to 20ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Full range of CIG and VSBY flight conditions across the panhandle
this afternoon ranging from low-end VFR to intermittent IFR.
Anticipating flight conditions to deteriorate through the period
as upper level system pushes into the panhandle by Saturday
morning around 12z, quickly exiting by 00z in the afternoon. As
system pushes inland overnight, anticipate MVFR or worse
conditions with CIGS AoB 3000ft with visibilities down to 2SM
within heaviest snow showers. Sustained winds should remain 10kts
or less and variable at times. No significant LLWS or significant
icing expected through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak outflow conditions persist across the panhandle this
afternoon while a ridge of high pressure is slowly starting to
give way to an approaching gale force front. This front is
expected to mainly impact the outside waters while winds through
the Inner Channels come up in response to the approaching system.
But wind speeds are expected to remain below 20 kts. For the outer
coast, gale force winds are expected to remain west of buoy 46083
but will impact the NE Gulf coast west of Cape Fairweather.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau