Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

677
FXAK67 PAJK 221442
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
542 AM AKST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SHORT TERM...The active weather pattern continues as the
steering flow aloft brings system after system into the panhandle.
Widespread precipitation has already returned to much of the area
once more as another low moves NW over the Gulf, sending moisture
into the panhandle. Am not expecting any spectacular rain totals
with this low, with the highest totals of up to 1.5 inches through
tonight across portions of the southern panhandle, and lower
totals further northward. Gusty conditions will continue through
the day, and precipitation should remain mainly rain near sea
level, although a few snowflakes may mix in around parts of Juneau
during the morning hours on Saturday. Am expecting precipitation
to continue through the duration of the weekend. For additional
information, see the long term forecast discussion. Temperatures
will largely remain above freezing, barring a few areas Saturday
morning around the Icy Strait corridor.

.LONG TERM...Continued active pattern for the foreseeable future
(essentially until the end of next week) with multiple shortwaves
troughs and ridges moving over the eastern gulf, resulting in
multiple systems with small breaks in between. Whether good news
or bad, precipitation type looks to stay predominantly rain for
the sea level areas, with upper elevation roads in the northern
panhandle at risk of some snow development.

Sunday through Monday will see a system move up from the south,
bringing moderate to fresh breezes from the southeast and light to
occasionally moderate rainfall. No changes were made to the QPF
forecast, and minor changes were made to the marine forecast, mainly
to lower wind speeds in areas which are sheltered to a SE wind.
Monday night sees a transient ridge move over the panhandle,
bringing lighter winds and some fog potential. Kept fog chances over
land areas in the northern half of the panhandle as confidence is
not high on lower wind speeds over marine waters. It may very well
develop as a low stratus deck instead of proper fog.

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a possibly more impactful system moving
in from the south. Currently, the main source of uncertainty comes
from aloft directing flow, which seems to be bimodal in nature. The
first, more likely solution at around 60%, sees the directing flow
towards the southern panhandle. The second, directs the energy south
of the panhandle and toward Haida Gwaii. NAEFS ensemble guidance
with respect to climatology has surface winds around the 90th
percentile, and EPS EFI guidance has roughly 60% chance of seeing a
wind gust event greater than 60 mph in the southern panhandle. While
this is mainly focused over the marine areas, such as southern
Clarence Strait and Dixon Entrance, will continue to monitor the
potential going forward. Similarly for precipitation, the more
likely solution has higher rain totals at around 1.0-2.5 inches in a
24 hour period.

&&

.AVIATION...From the overnight, the Juneau area had some clearer
skies and light winds, which allowed for fog to develop near the
airport, in the valley, and near downtown. Reports were down to
1/4SM and a CIG of 200 feet.

Elsewhere around the panhandle, it was a quiet night with high-end
MVFR to VFR conditions.

Going forward, the next low pressure center will track north through
the eastern gulf. As it does, it will bring MVFR conditions to the
area from south to north. Early this morning, MVFR conditions are
already being reported at PAKW and PAKT. CIGs are down to 1500
feet, at worst, and VIS is down to 3 miles at times.

Weather like that will track north, making it to the Icy Strait area
by around 1800z Saturday. LLWS is also a high chance of showing up
again today for mainly Icy Strait and south again.


&&

.MARINE...Elevated seas and waves continue across SE AK as a low
in the gulf moves NW through the weekend. Gales will prevail at
times for the outer coastal waters through Saturday. Concurrently,
a front racing northward across the panhandle with the low lead
to a surge of fresh to strong breezes which will reach into the
central inner channels and Icy Strait Corridor. Sunday will see
moderate to fresh breezes across the central and northern inner
channels, and the potential for strong breezes across the southern
inner channels as another low begins moving north.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>036-053-642>644-651-652-
     663-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....Fritsch
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...AP

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