Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

632
FXAK67 PAJK 071415
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
615 AM AKDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tonight/...Key Points:
- A Gale-force low continues to move into western Gulf into
  today.
- Heaviest rain and highest QPF will be located near Yakutat this
  evening into Sunday morning.

Details: The short-lived ridge of high pressure has been overtaken
by an approaching low currently centered in the western Gulf of
Alaska. This low will bring increased winds and heavy rain at
times to the northeastern Gulf Coast as a warm front approaches &
reaches the Panhandle. The first to arrive will be increased winds
with strong Gales of up to around 45 knots with Storm-Force wind
gusts near Kayak Island late this morning. See the Marine section
for more details. Land area winds will trend upward as the
aforementioned warm front approaches. Winds north of Icy Strait
will begin to increase this morning to around 20 to 25 mph with
gusts of up to around 30 to 40 mph. These winds will stay strong
before beginning to diminish late today into Sunday morning. As
for precipitation, EFI Tables still match with the northeastern
Gulf Coast getting unseasonably wet with this weekend system,
though any precipitation impacts still remain light with no
flooding concerns as ARIs remain rather low. Accompanying this, a
short period of increased IVT of between 250 & 500 will be focused
on the northeastern Gulf Coast. This increased atmospheric
moisture content will bring the heaviest precipitation to around
the Yakutat area with total 24-hour QPF amounts of around 1.5 to 2
inches. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur this evening into
Sunday morning with around 0.1 inches per hour near Yakutat and a
70% chance of seeing a bit more than 0.1 inch per hour over
Yakutat itself. The rest of the panhandle will see lighter rain
with 24-hour rain totals of around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for the
central Panhandle and even less for southern Panhandle areas.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - A warm front brings more rain focused on the northern
   panhandle Saturday into Sunday.
 - Less active weather on the horizon to start the week as a
   broad surface ridge builds over the gulf.

Details: Rain and increased winds will continue into Sunday as the
low moves inland and weakens. This rain will be mainly over the
central and northern panhandle with 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain
Sunday. Highest amounts will again be located near Yakutat due to
the low tracking ENE as it weakens.

After the weekend system leaves the area, broad ridging will build
over the gulf allowing for a chance of drier weather over the
panhandle with areas of light precipitation. Areas of dry air at 700
mb will help to keep any precipitation very light Tuesday to the end
of the week. Although, an upper level trough and embedded low will be
what helps to still bring some moisture to the northern panhandle.
As for temperatures, highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the
mid 40s near normal. Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible, mostly
in the southern panhandle where more breaks in the clouds are
possible. Stay tuned for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...
Prevailing VFR flight conditions across the panhandle early early
this morning with widespread CIGs above 4000ft and no visibility
issues.

For the coastal and interior panhandle, flight conditions will
deteriorate through the morning along northern coastal TAF sites as
a warm front extends into the panhandle through 22z, followed by a
reinforcing cold front Saturday evening. As these fronts push
inland, anticipating widespread IFR to MVFR conditions to develop
later this morning and will persist through the day. CIGS around
3000 to 4000ft and periods of IFR visibilities possible within bouts
of heavier precip. Winds should increase through Saturday morning
and into the afternoon across the northern panhandle, with strongest
sustained winds up to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts, outside of
Yakutat which will see brief period of sustained winds up to 25kts
and gusts up 35kts Saturday afternoon.

Main aviation concern will be LLWS for northern Gulf coastal TAF
sites, primarily Yakutat, as front pushes inland with southeasterly
LLWS developing by 14z, increasing to near 50 to 60kts through 00z,
gradually weakening moving into the end of the TAF period. Elsewhere
along the southern coast and interior, expecting LLWS to be less
severe, however, still sustained southeasterly winds around 25 to
35kts near 1500 to 2000ft as fronts push inland. LLWS comes to
end around 06z to 10z Sunday.

For the southern interior panhandle, outside of a stray shower, not
anticipating too many aviation impacts with this system as it`s
generally confined to the northern panhandle with VFR flight
conditions prevailing through the period. Winds should remain around
10kts or less through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters:
Wind gusts will continue to strengthen up to 50-55 knot Storm-
force for a barrier jet setting up over the northeastern Gulf to
the west of Yakutat near Kayak Island for late this morning as a
low & associated front push northeastward toward our area from the
western Gulf of Alaska. Ahead and along the frontal system,
sustained winds look to pickup to high-end Gale-force with the
highest winds over the northeastern Gulf waters. The enhanced
winds will last through today. 25 to 35 knot winds will linger
into Sunday for areas off the southern Panhandle Outer Coast as
the low wraps up and continues to move northeastward.

Inner Channels:
The relative lull in the winds is giving way today as winds
continue to strengthen across the Inner Channels through the day.
The aforementioned low looks to swing a pair of fronts through
the area that will increase wind speeds over the Inner Channels to
between around 20 to 30 kts, with winds rapidly increasing during
the late morning through the afternoon and evening hours today.
Lynn Canal will see brief wind gusts upwards of around 40 to 45
knots.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind this evening for AKZ317.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652.
     Gale Warning for PKZ651-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053-641>644-
     661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...JLC

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