Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

151
FXAK67 PAJK 111240
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
440 AM AKDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...Showery but cooler weather is the story of the day
for the next 24 hours or so. The cooler weather is due to a
colder air mass moving in from the Bering Sea behind the front.
850 mb temps are expected drop to around -6 or -7c across most of
the panhandle (especially the north) by midday which should be
enough to see snow at sea level for many areas. However, while
temperatures will be cooler most areas at sea level will still be
several degrees above freezing during the day (and only near to
around freezing Fri night), and expected QPF from the showers
will mostly be light, so any accumulations that do occur will
likely be less then 1 inch (mainly occurring Friday night).

As for winds, North/south channels showed a switch to southerly
overnight while many east/west channels stayed Westerly overnight.
A surge of some slightly stronger winds accompanied that shift to
the south with Lynn Canal and Skagway showing 20 kt of wind as of
4 am. Those winds are expected to increase a little more through
the morning hours as pressure gradients along Lynn Canal are still
increasing, before peaking around mid day, and then decreasing.
Otherwise winds will mostly be 20 kt or less for most areas.


.LONG TERM.../Through the Weekend/...

Sunday will see the return to broad windy, wet, and warm conditions
to the panhandle. A strong low near Kodiak Island will swing a front
across the gulf waters and into the panhandle. Along the front is
expected to be gale force winds on approach, and as the front nears
the coastline, strong gales due to a barrier jet. Storm force winds
in the NE gulf coast are not out of the realm of possibility, but
likelihood is currently only 10%. Strong breezes to near gales from
the southeast are expected to move into the inner channels, from
Clarence Strait to Icy Strait. For water conditions, look for seas
to maximize around 15-25 ft, with lower amounts near the southern
tip of PoW Island and highest wave heights near the NE gulf coast.

A majority of the precipitation will be positioned towards the NE
gulf coast down to the Juneau area, with current guidance indicating
1.0 - 2.5 inches in a 24 hour period, with expected amounts around 2
inches in a 24 hour period. Lesser amounts are expected in the
southern panhandle, 1.0 - 1.5 inches. There is the possibility of a
mesoscale feature moving along the front towards the southern
panhandle, which would bring much higher amounts, up to 2.5 inches
in 24 hours, but likelihood of this happening are around 25%.

Snow looks fairly minimal for this system, with only chances for
accumulating snow being the Klondike Highway near White Pass. With
snow levels around 2600 ft and significant WAA aloft, any snow
accumulation will likely be severely limited to possibly none at
all.

Looking towards Sunday afternoon and evening, sharp CAA from the
west will likely drive up CAPE in the gulf waters, particularly near
the NE gulf coast. While no widespread lightning is expected due to
a majority of the CAPE being very low level, the stray lightning
strike is not out of the question at time of writing.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and MVFR conditions continue this morning as rain showers
continue to work into the panhandle. These showers are expected to
persist through the day with a decreased potential later this
morning from Baranof Island up the NE Gulf coast to Yakutat. The
break will be short though as more showers are expected to move into
the area. IFR conditions have been sparsely reported so far this
morning but it would not be out of the realm of possibilities to see
conditions drop this low in a heavier shower. Cold air aloft moving
in from the west will also increase the potential to see snow mix
down to the surface during heavier shower and more significant
impacts to flying conditions.

&&

.MARINE...Southerly push of winds through the northern inner
channels is the main marine concern for the inner channels today.
Lynn Canal is already blowing 20 kt out of the south, and at
least the northern part of Lynn is expected to reach 25 kt small
craft criteria by late morning before diminishing late this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise most other inner channels will
stay 20 kt or less through Saturday morning with the higher winds
expected today.

The Gulf waters and ocean entrances are a little more complicated.
Tip jet enhancement of westerly winds was noted overnight in the
vicinity of Cape Decision (winds up to 35 kt) and Cape Spencer
(winds up to 25 kt). Those winds have since diminished and should
continue to diminish today as flow turns more SW. Winds are then
expected to stay low until Saturday as a new front moves in from
the SW. Expect SE winds increasing to near gale force by Saturday
evening across much of the gulf. Seas, after some initial 8
footers for the SE gulf Friday morning, will mainly stay at 6 ft
or less until Saturday afternoon as seas increase due to the
incoming front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 10 AM AKDT this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL

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