Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

733
FXAK68 PAFC 310141
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 PM AKDT Fri May 30 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The first of two upper-level waves is lifting into the interior
this afternoon with the second wave and the trough axis continuing
to move east from the Bristol Bay region and into the southern
Cook Inlet. The steady rain that overspread the Susitna Valley
and parts of the Kenai Peninsula this morning is now becoming more
showery in nature as colder air aloft advects over the western
half of Southcentral ahead of the second wave. A few breaks in the
cloud cover from the central Kenai north into the southern
Susitna early this afternoon may lead to enough instability
between the additional surface heating and colder air aloft to
initiate a few isolated thunderstorms this evening around the the
Sterling area as well as from Houston to Talkeetna.

Showers will likely linger across northern Cook Inlet into
Saturday morning before the second trough moves east and winds
aloft shift from the south to the southwest. By Saturday
afternoon, showers will overspread Prince William Sound and the
Copper River Basin as the southwesterly flow keeps any lingering
shower activity farther to the west along the western foothills of
the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains. Gap winds will also increase
by late Saturday morning or early afternoon, but will be of a
lesser magnitude than the past couple of days as the north-south
pressure gradient relaxes.

Temperatures will also trend cooler through Saturday in the wake
of this first trough (it was even cold enough for snow earlier
today across Broad Pass), but shortwave ridging and modest
southwesterly flow ahead of a large low organizing over the Bering
Sea will allow us to rebound back into the 50s over much of the
lower elevations of Southcentral by Sunday. Mid and long-range
models are in fairly good agreement with a front from an
unseasonably strong Bering low to lift north across the Gulf
Sunday. This system will have a good fetch of moisture being drawn
up from the North Pacific and will bring periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall to the eastern Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and
eastern Kenai Peninsula Sunday into Monday.

- TM/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

A gale force low is dipping across the northern Bering Sea,
bringing widespread rain and enhanced southerly winds to the
Bering Sea this afternoon. Cold air associated with an upper-level
trough shifting into Southcentral Alaska will lead to one more
cool night for the Southwest mainland with low temperatures
dipping into the mid 30s. Temperatures warm on Saturday due to
southerly flow out ahead of the low over the northern Bering Sea.
Additionally, onshore flow of 20 to 25 mph for the Kuskokwim
Delta combined with very high astronomical tides have led to
flooding of low-lying areas in communities such as Kipnuk and
Kwigillingok during high tide.

A North Pacific low lifts up toward the Bering Sea early Saturday
morning, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation and gale force
winds to the eastern Aleutians/Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula
through the weekend. Energy from this system phases with the
Bering low, pushing high-end gale force southeasterly winds up
along the Southwest coast Saturday night. The strong along-shore
winds cause an onshore surge of water, keeping the Kuskokwim
Delta coast at risk for coastal flooding again tomorrow and Sunday
afternoon/evening during high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory
remains in effect through 9 PM Sunday for water levels reaching
1.5 to 2.5 feet above the normal highest tide line. Water levels
are expected to recede between the main high tides each day. Light
rain spreads inland with the front on Sunday morning, slowly
weakening through the day. During this same time, a potent upper-
level shortwave dropping down the back side of the low will
spread rain showers and gusty winds west to east across the
Aleutian Chain through Sunday night. By Monday, the low center
tracks into the eastern Bering Sea and brings another round of
rainfall to Southwest Alaska behind the initial front. This second
round of precipitation looks to moderate high temperatures,
keeping them close to 50 degrees for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Above normal precipitation chances and below normal temperatures
remain forecast for the entire state and through the first half of
the long term period. A broad upper low/longwave trough is
forecast to be established over the Bering and Western Alaska on
Tuesday. Unsettled weather chances will persist with showery
conditions likely beneath the upper low across Southwest Alaska
and the Bering, while shortwaves lifting ahead of the trough will
pose elevated rain chances for Southcentral Alaska as well.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest two rounds of
precipitation will impact Southcentral with a trough moving
onshore of the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and a second trough to lift
through the region on Wednesday. This will help to maintain cooler
temperatures. A break from precipitation chances may then develop
on Thursday and Friday between systems.

- BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Winds are expected to slowly weakening throughout the rest
of today, then diminish more rapidly by Saturday morning as the
coastal pressure gradient finally weakens. Rain showers could
affect the terminal with somewhat lowered ceilings (below 5000
ft), but conditions should remain predominantly VFR through the
TAF period.

&&


$$