Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXAK69 PAFG 231130
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 AM AKST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low over the N bering Sea will move a warm front into the West
Coast today, with that warmer air slowly spreading east through
the weekend. Mixed rain, snow, and minor freezing rain will occur
over the West Coast from the YK Delta to Norton Sound.
Accumulating snowfall will spread east through Monday, bringing a
swath of widespread snowfall to the N Mainland, with general snow
amounts in the 4 to 8 inch range, except over the SE Interior
where downslope flow will keep that region much drier. Cold high
pressure then settles in Tuesday and beyond with plummeting temps
and dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Impacts by Region:

Central and Eastern Interior...
Quiet weather over the Interior today with high pressure over the
region. Increasing south gradients will begin to push south winds
across the AK Range as a West Coast front shifts east Sat
afternoon and Sun. Temps will gradually warm over the Interior
with increasing clouds Sunday. There will be increasing snow
chances spreading into the Lower Tanana Valley and north to the
Upper Koyukuk and S Slopes of the Brooks Range. A brief chance
for snow showers Sunday afternoon will occur as far east as
Fairbanks, but the main cold front shifts east Sunday night.
Currently, there is high confidence on accumulating snowfall,
likely heavy at times, to begin across the Interior Sunday night
and through most of Monday. This will impact the morning commute
as travelers make their way into Fairbanks and the surrounding
hills. Downslope flow will keep areas closer to the AK Range
drier, likely from Salcha to Delta Junction. From Fairbanks
northward, expecting a widespread swath of 4 to 8 inches of
snowfall, which will occur in a 24-30 hour period. With this being
more of a warm air advection snow, the ratios will not be high,
and snowfall will have a higher than normal moisture content for
an Interior snow event. A strong cold front moves south of the
Brooks Range Monday afternoon into Monday night, bringing north
gap winds through the Brooks Range and blowing and drifting snow
concerns.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A Bering low will begin spreading warm frontal mixed precipitation
into the West Coast later today, with a mixed bag of wintry mix
precipitation types expected from the Norton Sound south to the YK
Delta. Winter weather advisories remain in effect for snowfall of
2 to 6 inches with a glaze of ice. Warmer air will eventually
overspread the YK Delta and Lower Yukon Valley with a change from
snow to rain, with a slight chance for a brief period of freezing
rain. Heavier snowfall accumulations will occur further northward,
where all snow is expected. Looking at a solid swath of 4 to 6
inches of snowfall pretty much everywhere by the time the low
shifts out of the area Monday afternoon. Gale force north winds
will move across the Bering Strait coast as a cold front drops
south Monday afternoon and overnight with blowing snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow will overspread the Brooks Range and N Slope beginning today
over the W Arctic/Brooks Range, spreading east through Sunday.
There will be a sharp dividing line with the heaviest snowfall
further south, and little to no snow along the northern end of the
snow band. Right now, it looks like the coastal regions from
Utqiagvik eastward will see only minor snow accumulations, with 2
to 4 inches toward Point Hope, and 4 to 10 inches for the Brooks
Range, through Monday morning. A strong cold front will support
significant north winds and blowing snow through the Brooks Range
passes Monday and Monday night.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
An arctic trough settles in Tuesday through Friday with rapidly
dropping temps as skies clear out and arctic high pressure moves
over the N Mainland. A weak front will clip the Arctic mid to late
week, otherwise, very quiet weather looks to settle in with the
main storyline being a return to colder than normal temps.

Analysis and Forecast/Confidence Discussion...
A strong 570+ dam ridge axis remains over the N Pacific extending
all the way into the Interior. There is a cutoff and slow moving
524 dam upper low over the N Bering Sea with the associated warm
front moving into the Bering Strait. The upper low will make a
slow eastward progression across the Mainland the next three days,
spreading snowfall across the Mainland and into the Brooks Range,
with mixed precip over the SW Interior and Delta, and along the
Norton Sound coast. Fairly high confidence on what is expected,
with the only slight differences regarding the strength of the
shortwave trough as the low shifts eastward. This will determine
how long downslope flow persists over the S Interior into
Fairbanks. The ECMWF is faster and weaker and therefore brings
snow in quicker to the Fairbanks area, as early as Sunday night,
with slower and stronger solutions downsloping until closer to
Monday morning. We will cut the difference down the middle and
issue a number of winter weather advisories for the Interior for
accumulating snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820>822-824>826-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-842.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-843.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ841-844-845.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ846.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809-810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher