Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

770
FXAK69 PAFG 192216
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
216 PM AKDT Mon May 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front running through the Central Interior and into
the Brooks Range is bringing showers to the Interior, heavy snow
to to Brooks Range, and cool and damp conditions to the West
Coast.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Scattered to numerous showers expected across the Central
 Interior today and Tuesday under a stationary front.

-Isolated thunderstorms expected in the elevated terrain of the
 Eastern Interior from the White Mountains through the Fortymile
 Country.

-Warm and mostly dry conditions remain in the far eastern Interior
 particularly the valleys of the Fortymile Country including Eagle
 and Chicken.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Northerly winds along coastal areas, particularly the Bering
 Strait, 25 to 35 mph today. Northerly winds increase through the
 eastern Norton Sound Tuesday up to 25 mph.

-Cooler and damper conditions

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-Snow expected in the Central Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope
 through Tuesday. The heaviest snow will be in the Central Brooks
 Range near Atigun Pass where 7 to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow is
 expected. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Further north,
 3 to 7 inches are expected along the Dalton Highway north of
 Atigun Pass with 2 to 4 inches expected along the Coast from
 Harrison Bay to Point Thompson. Most snow will fall overnight
 tonight.

-Relatively light winds along the North Slope and Brooks Range
 through Tuesday. Northeasterly winds increase Tuesday night from
 Utqiagvik to Point Hope to 15 to 20 mph by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A stalled front sits over the Central Interior and Brooks Range
today between broad troughing along the West Coast and a weak
ridge over the far eastern Interior. The front is supporting
showers in the Central Interior, isolated thunderstorms along the
elevated terrain of the Eastern Interior, and heavy snow in Atigun
Pass. The front will slowly move east today and Tuesday and
weakens on Wednesday. Generally warm and dry east of the front and
cool and damp west of the front. Little shortwaves and bits of
enhanced vorticity move through the pattern today and Tuesday
which results in only middling confidence for specific forecast
details regarding rain and snow accumulations along the front. Due
to this we favored a blended approach to models and messaged
ranges of snow accumulation in our winter storm warning for the
Dalton Highway through Atigun Pass.

The front begins to break down Wednesday as a stronger moves
through the pattern and pulls the trough further south into the
Gulf of Alaska. Another low moving into the western Bering Sea
Wednesday night will further reinforce the trough as it moves
through the pattern. This results in very broad troughing
extending from the high Arctic through the West Coast and into the
Gulf of Alaska. Ridging attempts to build into the Eastern
Interior in spite of the pattern, but will have a very difficult
time gaining hold. With ridging and troughing interacting over the
Central and Eastern Interior afternoon showers and possible
thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week and
possibly into next week depending on how this overall pattern
evolves.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showery conditions continue across the Central Interior today. Dry
air persists over the far eastern Interior with minimum RH values
in the low 20s for valleys in the Fortymile Country, especially
for Eagle and Chicken. Minimum RHs in the low to mid 30s for much
of the rest of the Eastern Interior with min RHs 40 and up from
Delta Junction through Beaver and west. Showers bring decent
chances of wetting rain to areas between Delta Junction, Beaver,
Hughes, and Lake Minchumina today and Tuesday and will help keep
the Central Interior slightly cooler than normal. Chances
diminish Wednesday as the front sustaining the showers weakens.
Temperatures rise Wednesday through the weekend as ridging
attempts to build in the Eastern Interior. Minimum RHs fall into
the 30s for most of the Interior by Thursday, but afternoon
showers are still very possible. Isolated Thunderstorms expected
this afternoon and evening in the elevated terrain of the Eastern
Interior. There is a very slight chance of embedded thunderstorms
forming amongst the showers in the Central Interior, but these
are less likely than yesterday. Out west north winds and troughing
dominate with cooler, damper conditions and light showers possible
through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Breakup on the Lower Yukon has passed, with degraded ice in place
near the mouth of the river. Water levels have risen slightly, but
remain low enough that there are no flooding concerns. Elsewhere,
the upper tributaries of the Porcupine River are starting to
respond to snowmelt, although breakup has yet to begin along the
Porcupine. Snowmelt will lead to gradual rises in water levels
over the Chena Basin, but there remain no immediate flooding
concerns.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A broad trough extends from the high Arctic through the West Coast
and into the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in good agreement on this
broad pattern. Ridging attempts to build into the Eastern Interior
in spite of this pattern which will allow for warmer and drier
conditions in the Central and Eastern Interior. Afternoon showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible most days under this
pattern in the Central and Eastern Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
&&

$$

Stokes