Anchorage, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXAK68 PAFC 220257
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
657 PM AKDT Wed May 21 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

A surface low has crossed the Alaska Peninsula into the North
Pacific today. The low, currently southwest of Kodiak Island, will
continue on its east-southeast track as it continues to weaken
through Thursday. Most precipitation associated with the front
will be confined to Kodiak Island. However, the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and western Prince William Sound will also see showery
conditions through Thursday with favorable east-southeast upslope
flow off of the Gulf. Elsewhere across Southcentral, expect
scattered showers, mostly across the Susitna Valley to begin
tapering off tonight.

Also of note will be the gusty southeast gap winds associated
with this front. The coastal ridge ahead of the front will
strengthen into this evening which will allow the Turnagain Arm
wind to continue to bend into Anchorage. Southeast Knik and Copper
River winds will also persist into Palmer and Gulkana. Southeast
gusts pick up again for Thursday afternoon in these areas but will
not be as gusty as this afternoon/tonight.

Warmer temperatures, especially across the interior, build in for
Friday and Saturday as the coast sees a reprieve from rain. With
the warmer temperatures, instability will also build for Friday
and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across northeast
portions of the Copper River Basin Friday afternoon and early
evening as an easterly wave works westward from Yukon, Canada.
Likewise, Saturday also features increased instability across the
interior with the northeast Copper River Basin looking the most
unstable. While the best chance for isolated thunderstorms will
over the northeast Copper Basin Saturday, western portions of the
Susitna Valley could also have enough instability present to
generate a few lightning strikes with any vigorous showers that
develop in the foothills of the eastern facing slopes of the
Alaska Range.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers continue to move across the Southwest mainland
this afternoon. These are being fueled by a low that is present
south of the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty gale force winds are being
felt in the Eastern Aleutians, particularly in gap regions. Gusty
Kamishak gap winds are also being funneled into the mainland,
being felt from Iliamna to Dillingham. Meanwhile, another low has
moved into the western Aleutians, increasing precipitation chances
from Shemya to Adak and also causing small craft winds.

On Thursday, the low will move into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing
for the southwest mainland to have slight ridging and thus, drier
and calmer conditions. However, chances for showers will linger,
especially in the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley
regions along higher terrain. Gap winds will also diminish in the
Eastern Aleutians with the exit of the low. Also in the Bering,
the other low will advance eastward, but will fizzle out as it
reaches the Fox Islands. The low`s front will bring a period of
rainfall to the Fox Islands and briefly into Cold Bay before
dissipating by Friday morning.

Friday will initially be uneventful as a broad ridge builds in
the Bering, and as the southwest mainland continues to dry out.
However, a large low pushes into the western Aleutians by Friday
afternoon, sending a large, strong front eastward. Heavy rainfall
and small craft winds are associated with the front. Also, the
mainland will have a potential for thunderstorms in the Lower
Kuskokwim Delta. Come Saturday, the front will push into the
Eastern Aleutians and Pribilofs, bringing small craft winds and
heavy precipitation. The Pribilofs could see a brief period of
snowfall before transitioning to rain in the afternoon.
Temperatures in the mainland become quite warm, reaching the 60s
further from the coast. A better chance for thunderstorms is
expected for Saturday afternoon, stretching from the Lower
Kuskokwim Delta to inland parts of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Delta. The front will move inland by Saturday night, bringing
heavy rainfall and breezy winds to coastal regions of the
mainland.

-JAR

&&



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A broad upper level low stretches from Siberia across the Bering
before angling into the Gulf of Alaska. Several shortwaves help
the low centers slip through the pattern as the low becomes more
organized over the Eastern Bering and Western Mainland by the end
of the forecast period. The most persistent low anchors over the
Gulf of Alaska through midweek. Models favor the GFS through the
new week maintaining strengths and tracks of features.

Lingering showers are expected over the Southern half of Mainland
Alaska through Wednesday. A rain-wrapped low and front pushing
across the Central Aleutians and Bering brings moderate rain and
locally gusty winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
through Monday. The low sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska, spreading
the rain into Southcentral Alaska and North to the Alaska Range
until Wednesday. Snow is expected over higher elevations,
diminishing Tuesday. In the West, a well developed North Pacific
low and front does a drive-by over the Western and Central
Aleutians for Tuesday and Wednesday before curving back into the
North Pacific.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are ongoing and expected to
persist through the evening hours before diminishing shortly
before midnight.

&&


$$