Vestavia Hills, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

610
FXUS64 KBMX 111714
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

Following the widespread showers and storms that weakened and
moved south of the forecast area, skies have mostly cleared except
for the far southern counties. Due to the widespread wetting
rainfall and high amount of surface moisture, combined with calm
conditions we`re seeing areas of fog developing mainly along the
major river basins. I`ve gone ahead and added areas of fog to the
forecast for now, and may have to eventually go with a Dense Fog
Advisory during the morning commute. At the moment, most fog
formation is showing up on the GOES-19 Night Fog product along the
major river basins and some valley locations in the eastern and
northeastern counties. One other wrench to throw into the forecast
includes an area of low stratus development from Perry eastward
to Tallapoosa and Chambers Counties. I had to take a look at some
traffic cameras to confirm that it was low clouds and not fog
forming in those locations. If low stratus continues to develop,
it would help to mitigate fog formation. We`ll continue to watch
observation and satellite trends as we go through the early
morning.

Meanwhile, the 500mb closed low will continue to spin off to our
northeast while another shortwave disturbance dives southward.
Although conditions aloft are still very cold with steep lapse
rates between 850 and 500mb, we just don`t have enough overall
instability along with deep wind shear for widespread storm
formation. Therefore for today`s forecast, scattered to numerous
showers are expected to develop mainly during the afternoon with a
few isolated storms mixed in at times. As the shortwave
disturbance rotates across the northern half of Central Alabama
with increasing clouds, temperatures may actually decrease during
the afternoon north of I-20. Meanwhile, southern areas will be
affected less by the shortwave with lower rain chances and warmer
high temperatures. Highs are forecast to range from the low to mid
60s north to the lower 70s south.

Showers will diminish quickly after sunset this evening with
clearing skies aside from some high cirrus. Ideal radiational
cooling will allow for very chilly temperatures by sunrise
Saturday, though not as cold as we saw earlier in the week. With
local microclimates in mind, I`ve gone ahead and lowered
temperatures in our normally cooler locations (Haleyville,
Gadsden, Pinson, and Talladega to name a few) down into the mid to
to upper 30s, while most other locations will drop into the low to
mid 40s. As the upper trough departs to the east by Saturday we
can expect very tranquil weather across the Deep South as upper
level ridging works in from the west. With a cooler northerly
surface flow continuing, highs Saturday are trending toward the
mid to upper 60s areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

A warming trend will develop to start the extended period as ridging
builds across the area, but not before a chilly start to the day on
Sunday. Some patchy frost will be possible in the north and
northeast, then temperatures will warm into the mid 70s. Zonal flow
aloft and southwesterly low-level flow will support warm conditions
on Monday with highs in the lower 80s. This warm up will occur ahead
of a weak cold front associated with a surface low moving from the
Great Lakes to Ontario. The front will move through the area on
Tuesday. The NBM is is still holding off on PoPs due to weak forcing
and limited moisture, but could see enough support for isolated
showers at least. High pressure will build across the region behind
the departing cold front, and dry, seasonal conditions are expected
by the middle of next week. With the pattern remaining progressive,
another system may bring rain chances to the area towards the end
of the work week.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

VFR conditions early this afternoon will give way to MVFR
conditions by late afternoon across the north as showers with a
few thunderstorms will develop and move south across the forecast
area. Low-level winds will remain from the northwest at 6-12 kts
generally. MVFR conditions are expected tonight with showers with
a few storms continuing through the evening hours with the
heaviest activity pushing southeast and affecting the southeast
portion of the area later into the evening with improving
conditions moving in from the northwest. Expect dry conditions on
Saturday with clouds decreasing through the morning Saturday from
SCT/BKN south to FEW/SCT north as VFR conditions return areawide
by late morning.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers will be possible in the north this afternoon,
but drier air will be in place across the south where min RH will
range from 35 to 40%. Northwest winds will be breezy at times
today with gusts up to 25 mph. Dry, rain-free conditions are
expected over the weekend with min RH in the 30-35% range on
Saturday and Sunday afternoon. A cold front will approach the area
on Monday, but rain chances look questionable at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     36  64  36  73 /  40   0   0   0
Anniston    37  64  38  73 /  40   0   0   0
Birmingham  40  64  41  74 /  40   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  67  41  75 /  30   0   0   0
Calera      43  65  42  73 /  40   0   0   0
Auburn      44  65  43  72 /  40   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  67  42  74 /  40   0   0   0
Troy        44  67  42  74 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...05