Tuscaloosa, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

504
FXUS64 KBMX 040800
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
200 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST WED DEC 4 2024

The high pressure system currently centered just to our east will
slide away from the area through the afternoon and becomes centered
off the East Coast. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure will swing
through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front to the ArkLaTex area
by the afternoon. We should see clouds begin to build in the west,
although the rain should remain to our west through the daytime
hours.

Tonight we will see the front enter the northeast after Midnight and
then quickly sweep through the area overnight and into Thursday
morning. This will be a fairly widespread light rain event with
minor accumulations. Most of the rain will be in the north by
sunrise and then out of the south by midday. Drier air returns by
the afternoon on Thursday.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM CST WED DEC 4 2024

Key Message:

- Medium to high (50-70%) chances of wind chills dropping into the
10 to 15 degree range across the northern half of Central Alabama
late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Strong cold air advection will be in place Thursday night as a
1035mb high sinks southeastward, centered over the Ozarks. Winds
will stay up overnight but will begin to drop off around sunrise in
sheltered locations. Low temperatures will drop well into the 20s
with some upper teens in some of the far northern counties. Wind
chills drop near or below 15 degrees across the northern half of the
area, with some values at or below 10 degrees in some of the
northern counties with the cooler advisory criteria. Therefore there
are at least medium if not high chances of needing to issue a Cold
Weather Advisory. Note that hard freeze warnings are no longer
issued, but some far northern counties will reach the old hard
freeze criteria of 20 degrees or colder. A chilly day is expected
Friday with continued northerly winds. Calm winds and very low dew
points will result in favorable radiational cooling conditions
Friday night though some high clouds move in late. Lows will drop
well into the 20s once again.

Ensemble clusters of solutions are coming into much better agreement
with the forecast for this weekend and early next week. Saturday and
Saturday night now look dry with moderating temperatures and winds
becoming easterly and then southeasterly. A kicker trough over the
northeast Pacific will break down the rex block over the western
CONUS. The southwest US cutoff low will eject northeastward across
the Mid-South Sunday night and Monday morning. Moisture transport
from a 45kt LLJ results in high (70-90%) rain chances across the
northwest half of the area by Monday morning. The shortwave will be
outrunning the northeastward progression of the warm sector at the
surface with negligible instability with this lead shortwave. The
cold front will remain off to our west until Tuesday as the upstream
shortwave amplifies into a longwave trough across the central CONUS.
This will result in continued rain chances and mild temperatures,
though moisture appears limited with the frontal passage itself on
Tuesday.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the TAF period. Calm
winds as of 05z will increase to between 5-10 knots from a
southwesterly heading starting ~15z today. A weather system will
bring some light rain showers late in the TAF period, arriving
and moving west-to-east from 00z Thursday. This system may involve
reduced ceilings and visibility overnight Thursday for a few
terminals; more on that in the next TAF cycle.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure remains in control over the region today and then rain
moves in tonight through Thursday morning. Accumulations will be
light but we should see a fairly widespread rain. Min RH levels this
afternoon before the clouds and rain will be in the mid to upper 20s
in the southeast to low to mid 30s across the rest of the area.
Behind the front on Thursday afternoon the north will drop in the
30s for Min RH levels while the south will remain in the 40s and
50s. 20ft winds will be southwesterly around 5 to 8 mph this
afternoon and northerly on Thursday around 7 to 11 mph. Next
chance of wetting rains will be Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  42  47  19 /   0  60   0   0
Anniston    56  44  49  21 /   0  70   0   0
Birmingham  55  44  48  21 /   0  80   0   0
Tuscaloosa  56  44  50  23 /  10  90  10   0
Calera      56  47  50  22 /   0  90  10   0
Auburn      55  45  54  25 /   0  80  20   0
Montgomery  58  46  56  27 /   0  90  30   0
Troy        58  45  57  28 /   0  80  40   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/JDavis
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite