Troy, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS64 KBMX 212031
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
231 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Key Messages:
- Gusty winds from 20 to 40 mph will be possible across much of
  Central Alabama this afternoon and until 6 pm this evening
- A freeze is expected for areas generally near and north of
  Interstate 20 from 3 am to 8 am on Friday.
- A frost is expected across much of the forecast area from 3 am
  to 8 am on Friday.

This afternoon.

A sprawling upper low is centered over Eastern Ohio while
amplified broad mid-level ridging is over the Intermountain West.
A northwest flow aloft prevails over the state with a reinforcing
cold front approaching the state from the northwest.

Expect sunny skies with windy conditions this afternoon with
winds from the northwest at 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph at
times. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s north and
northeast to the low 60s far south and southwest.

Tonight.

The upper low will move east, becoming centered over the Mid-
Atlantic Region overnight while broad id-level ridging will build
eastward over the High Plains. The reinforcing surface front will
push through the area by this evening, becoming positioned across
the Northern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Strengthening surface low
pressure will develop across the Northeast while high pressure
remains across the Northern and Central Plains.

Look for clear skies overnight with decreasing northwest winds
from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from near 30 far
northwest to the mid 30s southeast. Freezing temperatures are
expected generally near and north of the Interstate 20 corridor
early Friday morning. A widespread frost is expected with the only
limiting factor being the winds overnight, frost potential will
be maximized in locations sheltered from the wind.

Friday.

A northwest flow aloft will persist over the area on Friday as
deep elongated troughing will become positioned over much of the
Eastern Seaboard while broad Ridging remains over the
Intermountain West and High Plains Regions. A strong surface low
will become centered across SOutheast New York State while surface
high pressure persists across the Northern and Central Plains.

Mostly sunny skies are forecast Friday with a few high clouds
moving south over the northern portions of the area during the
day. Winds will be breezy from the northwest from 7-14 mph. High
temperatures will range from near 50 in the higher elevations
northeast and far east to the upper 60s far southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Key Message:

- A widespread frost/freeze is expected Saturday morning that will
  likely end the growing season in many locations.

The biggest change in the extended is the fact that the latest
guidance has come into more agreement. The consensus now keeps the
pattern more open. Rain is still likely in the extended. One front
on Tuesday and then the second on Thanksgiving Day and into the
evening hours. While we still wait on the exact details of the
extended, the open wave will limit thunder chances, but we will
need to get a little closer to get into the weeds. As for
guidance, the numbers came in closer to the operational model
blend and our ongoing forecast, so did not make any changes to
those.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

Following a breezy and chilly day on Friday, the surface ridge is
expected to build into the Deep South by Friday night and
Saturday morning. Under mostly clear skies and light winds with
the ridge overhead, ideal radiational cooling will drop
temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s in many
locations. Widespread frost is also expected, and therefore frost
& freeze products will be needed. The growing season will come to
an end across a vast majority of Central Alabama as a result.
Another frost will be likely once again on Sunday morning, but
otherwise we`ll see moderating temperatures through the weekend.
High temperatures will warm significantly by Monday and Tuesday as
warm air advection kicks in and a zonal flow pattern aloft sets
up over much of the CONUS. Global guidance then begins to diverge
after Tuesday of next week as the next system approaches from the
west by Thanksgiving. With the uncertainties, I`ve kept the
persistence forecast in place in terms of PoPs through Wednesday,
while forecast temperatures remain above NBM guidance and closer
to an operational model blend.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Wind direction will
be out of the northwest, with gusts up to 25-30 mph through
Thursday evening. Wind speeds will lower during the late evening and
overnight period, as wind shear conditions set up across the
forecast area.

71

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected over the next few days with dry
northwest flow. Will will remain on the breezy side with gusts
upwards of 25 on Friday, and finally much lighter on Saturday.
Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s on Friday and 40s on Saturday. Overnight recovery
should include RHs in the 70 and 80 percent range tonight and at
or near 100% Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     33  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    33  52  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  52  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  35  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      34  53  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      36  53  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  36  56  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        36  55  35  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-
Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Lamar-Marion-Randolph-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...71