Tillmans Corner, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

981
FXUS64 KMOB 181019
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
419 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

An upper level shortwave trough over the Southern Plains to eastern
Conus continues to stretch as it moves east, slowing as it does.
Another upper level shortwave trough moves south over the US Rockies
behind the system, helping to put the brakes on the first system. A
surface low over the Southern Plains moves east to the Southeast,
ahead of a strong cold front. With the upper level trough slowing as
it moves east, the cold front slows as it sags southeast over the
forecast area into Saturday night. Rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms that have developed move east over the forecast area
today, then sag southeast later today into tonight over the Gulf as
the cold front crosses the forecast area.

Looking closer look at the precipitation, showers and thunderstorms
isentropically driven into early Saturday, becoming more surface
based with SBCapes around 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise into the
70s and dewpoints into the 60s. Strong mid (~85kt) and upper
(~120kt) upper jets will bring decent upper support. Tempering
instability closer to the coast are SSTs in the lower to mid 60s.
Combined with 80kt Bulk Shear and 0-1km helicities around
200m^2/s^2, a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible
along and east of I-65. As Saturday progresses, the better
instability shifts offshore as the cold front begins to move over
the forecast area and the precipitations shifts south.

Temperatures are bit more straight forward. Well above seasonal
norms initially for the period, but a strong cold front crossing the
area tonight will bring a bit drop in temperatures. High
temperatures today top out in the low 70s. After the front crosses
the area tonight, high temperatures for Sunday see a big drop,
ranging from the mid 40s well northwest of I-65 to mid 50s over and
near the 50s near the Florida panhandle coast. Temperatures tonight
drop significantly behind the front, ranging from the mid to upper
30s west of the Alabama River to mid to upper 40s over the western
Florida panhandle. Sunday night, as both upper shortwave systems
pass, and colder air pushes south across the forecast area,
temperatures bottom out in the upper teens north of Highway 84 to
low 20s south of I-10. In combination with north winds generally
around 10-15 mph, apparent temperatures falling into the single
digits along and north of Highway 84 are expected, with low teens
south. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for Sunday night into
early Sunday morning.

Strong onshore flow will bring a High Risk of rip current to area
beaches today into tonight, with a moderate Sunday into Sunday night.
/16

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Confidence continues to increase on the potential for an impactful
winter weather event taking shape on Tuesday, along with cold
conditions for much of the week.

A broad upper trough will encompass much of the CONUS on Monday,
with surface high pressure settling into the region. Strong CAA will
bring an arctic airmass, with bitter cold conditions expected for
the first half of the new work week. Highs on Monday will only rise
into the upper 30s to lower 40s, and combined with the winds, wind
chills will be in the 20s to low 30s. Overnight lows will fall into
the 20s areawide, with wind chills dropping into the teens, except
along the immediate coast. A shortwave is expected to amplify the
upper trough, rounding its base and moving through the forecast area
by Tuesday night. Meanwhile, guidance is still in fair agreement on
the development of a surface low over the western Gulf on Tuesday,
with this low tracking eastward through the central Gulf during the
day. Over a day of southwest flow aloft will have filtered in enough
moisture across the area to combine with the forcing associated with
the trough to bring increasing precip chances during the day Tuesday
(more on the specifics below). Precip will continue through the day
and begin to exit the area late Tuesday night.

Ensemble guidance continues to showcase the potential for winter
precip on Tuesday, though to differing amounts and precip type. The
latest forecast leans more in favor of the ENS, which is fairly in
line with the GEPS, featuring colder temperatures during the period
and especially from Monday night through Tuesday night. These colder
temperatures are likely due to a deeper trough and quicker height
falls than the GEFS. Regardless of the solution, all guidance paints
the area with some wintry precipitation with varying amounts of
snow/ice.

To further complicate matters, Tuesday`s temperatures will obviously
have a direct impact on the precip type, while the precip will have
an impact on temps. If we realize any snow falling prior/during our
typical peak heating hours, this will decrease our warming,
potentially preventing us to warm above freezing. Additionally, with
expansive cloud cover and northerly winds, I`m not too confident
that we will warm the 10 degrees noted in the latest NBM (which came
in slightly warmer for temps through the period). Given the
uncertainty, a blend of the previous forecast and the latest NBM was
used for temperatures on Tuesday, to try and mitigate a flip-
flopping of p-types since we`re still 4 days out.

Combining all of the scrambled thoughts above, we`re looking at a
high chance (60- 70%) of at least 0.5 inch of snow areawide and a
medium (40%) chance for reaching Winter Storm Warning (2+ inches)
criteria. Even then, the lower bound of snow accumulations from
ensemble members is 2 inches for Mobile (favoring the GEFS) and
the upper bound (GEFS and GEPS) is 5 inches, with a solution
favoring the ENS coming in right in the middle. The p-type for the
coastal areas is even more challenging, but given the potential
for warming low level temps, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet,
and snow is advertised for these areas. The chance for
accumulating freezing rain/ice remains low, with about a 20%
chance for areas south of I-10. Further north, these probabilities
are even lower.

Even colder temperatures are in store for Tuesday night, as lows
fall into the teens once ago. Wind chills will dip into the single
digits across the area. High pressure will move into the Mid
Atlantic region on Wednesday, with winds slowly veering through the
day. A return of southern surface flow will bring slightly warmer
temps, but expect temps to remain well below normal through the end
of the period. And yes, the operational ECMWF shows another system
impacting the area at the end of the extended period, but there`s
pretty much 0 confidence on that. /73
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Moderate to strong winds are expected today into tonight.
Mostly exercise caution level winds are expected except for a short
SC.Y for our far offshore zones. A strong offshore flow then
develops by Saturday night and continues through the early part of
next week in the wake of a strong cold front that will move south
across the marine area, with another SC.Y expected. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  41  49  21  41  25  36  20 /  40  10   0   0   0  20  70  40
Pensacola   69  46  52  24  41  29  39  24 /  70  30   0   0   0  10  70  50
Destin      70  49  57  27  43  31  43  27 /  90  50   0   0   0  10  70  60
Evergreen   71  39  48  18  38  20  35  18 /  60  10   0   0   0  10  60  40
Waynesboro  74  34  44  18  38  21  34  15 /  20   0   0   0   0  10  60  20
Camden      71  35  43  17  36  20  35  15 /  30  10   0   0   0  10  60  30
Crestview   70  45  52  21  41  23  39  22 /  80  40   0   0   0  10  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
     for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
     for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning
     for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$

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