Oxford, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

118
FXUS64 KBMX 180958
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
358 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist through the
morning hours
- Much colder air begins to arrive on Sunday leading to a low chance
of snow flurries

The KBMX radar is fairly active this morning as a broken line of
showers streams across Central Alabama. Can`t rule out a few rumbles
of thunder through the morning, generally across our southern tier
of counties. Rain chances will gradually wane this afternoon as a
shortwave trough lifts away from the region. A trailing upper level
trough will eject across the Tennessee Valley late Saturday into
Sunday while sending an associated cold front south across the
state. CAA will begin to take control of the region as much colder
air filters in. As the cold air arrives, we will open up a window
Sunday morning through the early afternoon hours for some snow
flurries across our northern counties as moisture wraps around the
system. Overall, chances are fairly low and not expecting much, if
any, accumulations.

The the main story on Sunday will be the drastic swing in
temperatures we will experience. Sunday high temps looks to be about
30 degrees colder than today`s highs...30s and 40s compared to 60s
and 70s today. A breezy northwesterly wind will hold our apparent
temps in the low to mid 20s for much of the daytime hours. Even
bigger changes are in store as we head into the work week with lows
in the teens, single digit wind chills and a threat of snow. More on
that in the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 350 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Prolonged period of frigid cold temperatures arrives Sunday
  night into Monday morning; accumulating snowfall more likely on
  Tuesday.
- Medium to high (50-90%) chances of wind chill values below 15
  degrees during the overnight periods Sunday night through
  Wednesday morning.
- Low to medium (10-60%) chances for snow accumulations at or
  above 1.0" Tuesday into Tuesday night.

A significant upper-level trough is expected overtake much of the
CONUS this weekend, and this will coincide with an arctic airmass
overspreading a broad region from the Plains through Mississippi
Valley, and eventually the Southeast on Sunday. The arrival of the
arctic cold front will bring significant cold advection Sunday night
with a rapid decrease in temperatures and dewpoints as a ~1039 mb
high nears the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures in the 10s & 20s will
combine with northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph, gusting as high as 20
mph at times, to produce dangerous wind chills in the single digits
and teens Monday morning. This high confidence threat needs to be
addressed with appropriate cold weather headlines very soon.
This dangerous cold poses a threat to outdoor/exposed water pipes,
animals, and anyone outside without sufficient clothing or access to
warm shelter. Making matters worse, there`s little relief expected
during the daytime hours Monday, and the arctic airmass will stick
around through the end of the week threatening life and property
(including water systems) across Central Alabama. Make
final preparations today!

In addition to high confidence in cold weather across the area next
week, confidence has increased with respect to winter weather
(snowfall) Tuesday and Tuesday night. Global models and ensembles
continue to better align and depict accumulating snow across a good
portion of Central Alabama, but is flipped 180 degrees from how
you`d normally expect it. In this case, higher probabilities for
accumulations reside across our southern counties where overrunning
moisture near/north of a stationary front and Gulf low is most
plentiful, including saturation through the DGZ per various forecast
soundings. Locations generally south of I-20 and north of I-85 are
currently forecast to receive one quarter inch to two inches, with
amounts increasing to as high as 3-4 inches near Troy and Eufaula.
(Our graphics will better depict this than how I`m describing it).
Regardless of exact amounts and where they occur, temperatures
falling back into the 10s and 20s Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning suggests impacts to travel are likely. Snow accumulations,
which may partially melt on Tuesday afternoon, could cause icy
roads. We`re still 4 days out on this threat, so the forecast is
certainly going to change, including exact snowfall amounts and
their extent. It does appear increasingly likely we`ll have
winter impacts to deal with Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

After the system mid-week, guidance becomes less clear on subsequent
opportunities for precip, and NBM guidance was spatially
inconsistent with placement of slight chance PoPs. Thus, I truncated
PoPs to 14% until there`s better clarity for mentioning additional
winter wx threats in the official forecast.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025

MVFR CIGs and -RA are continuing to expand across the region, with
most locations falling into IFR category by 18/12z. The rain
should being to taper off around this time as well, with skies
slowly mixing out back to MVFR category. However, IFR CIGs will
return to most terminal by 19/01z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread soaking rains continue across Central Alabama this
morning, with clearing forecast by the afternoon. Cooler, drier
air arrives tonight. Thereafter, arctic air moves into Central
Alabama Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow is possible for
portions of the area on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  30  39  13 /  70  10  10   0
Anniston    63  33  41  15 /  70  20  10   0
Birmingham  64  32  39  16 /  60  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  67  31  40  18 /  40  10  10   0
Calera      66  34  40  17 /  50  10  10   0
Auburn      66  38  47  19 /  90  40  10   0
Montgomery  71  37  47  20 /  70  30  10   0
Troy        71  38  49  19 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...44