Muscle Shoals, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS64 KHUN 181032
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
432 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 431 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

A strong low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is in place over
northern Alabama on the east/northeast side of an area of low
pressure that is moving to the east currently over eastern
Arkansas. The strong forcing associated with the nose of this
low level jet has produced a large area of moderate precipitation
along with a few embedded elevated thunderstorms over portions of
Alabama, Mississippi, and much of Tennessee. Additional rainfall
and some elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop as the surface low and its attendant cold front are
pushed southeast by a very strong arctic high pushing quickly
southeast from SW Canada and the Upper Midwest region. Models
continue to show this potential for some elevated thunderstorms
fueled by meager elevated instability until just after daybreak
over much of the area. The main effect will be just a few rumbles
of thunder and lighting where thunderstorms develop. Most
guidance show this elevated instability waning after daybreak and
then possibly building back to the north this afternoon. Wind
shear drops significantly later this afternoon as the low level
jet moves east of the area around 10 AM in most guidance, but
forcing as the surface low/front moves over the area will likely
increase. So some elevated thunderstorms could redevelop in the
afternoon near and south of the Tennessee River.

Cloud cover and rainfall will help keep things a bit cooler in
most locations today (the exception maybe south of the Tennessee
River). Highs north of the Tennessee River will likely be
primarily in the lower to mid 50s. South of the river highs could
make it into the 56 to 61 degree range. Up to one half inch of
additional rain is expected through the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The arctic high that has been advertised behind this front is
still forecast to quickly move southeast this evening and
overnight. However, it does have a fairly warm airmass to modify,
so freezing temperatures look to hold off moving into northern
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee until a few hours before
daybreak on Sunday. Expect most of the precipitation associated
with the surface low to be east of the area early this evening.

However, models tend to slow the movement of the surface low east
through Georgia overnight. As the Arctic airmass accelerates
southeast behind the front, it starts to catch up with wrap around
moisture/light precipitation around the backside of the surface
low well to our east. Thus, kept a low chance 20 to 30 percent of
precipitation in the forecast after midnight in portions of
northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee and into the day on
Sunday. This precipitation will likely change over to a rain/snow
mix around daybreak into all snow during the day on Sunday. This
activity will be mainly confined to areas near and north of the
Tennessee River (primarily southern middle Tennessee). A dusting
up to maybe half an inch of snow may fall, but not all of that
will accumulate. Expect any amounts close to half an inch would be
primarily in southern middle Tennessee in higher elevations.

The arctic area of high pressure is forecast to begin building
into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in earnest
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Very strong cold air advection
and cloud cover on Sunday will help to keep temperatures in the
upper 20s to 30s through the day. As the surface high settles
further southeast Sunday night into Monday, it will bring the
coldest conditions to the area we have seen so far this winter
season. Lows continue to be progged to drop into the single digits
to lower teens overnight. Northwest winds around 10 mph with some
gusts to 20 mph will be in place overnight. This will likely drive
wind chill values to around 0 degrees to maybe as much as 10
degrees below zero in some locations.

Despite sunny skies on Monday, with the very strong cold air
advection expected with this arctic airmass shifting further
southeast, highs will be hard pressed to reach the lower to mid
20s. With NW winds 5 to 10 mph and maybe a few gusts up to 15
mph, wind chill values will likely be hard pressed to get out of
the lower to mid teens in some areas (mainly NE AL and southern
middle Tennessee).

Models continue to be consistent with a storm system developing
in the Gulf of Mexico Monday night through Tuesday night. The
trend continues to be that the surface low in the Gulf forms in
the central to southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico and moves E
or ENE during that period. This would keep the bulk of any
precipitation along Gulf coastal states and possibly only as far
north as southern/central Georgia and Alabama given the strong
push of the arctic airmass (much colder/drier air) southeast in
guidance.

Mid/high clouds north of the storm system in the Gulf of Mexico
will likely make it into central and northern Alabama Monday
night into Tuesday, and may produce some virga. This should help
to modify dewpoints a tad and help to keep overnight lows Monday
night into Tuesday a bit warmer - mid teens.

However, it will also help to keep highs on Tuesday below
freezing in most locations (upper 20s to 32 degrees).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

As the surface high shifts into the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday
night into Wednesday, winds should become lighter and skies should
clear. This will set up a better radiational cooling setup for
the Tennessee Valley region. Thus, overnight lows could drop lower
into the single digits to lower teens again. We could be flirting
with wind chill values Tuesday night into Wednesday dropping to
zero to 5 below again.

The good news is that highs might finally get above freezing
Wednesday afternoon with abundant sunshine expected. A continued
slight warming trend is expected into the end of next week. We
could have another storm system move into the area and bring some
wintry precipitation late Thursday night into Friday. However,
details are not clear and vary widely with model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

VFR conditions will likely continue for a few more hours, before
CIGS lower and become MVFR with -RA. Some light to moderate RA
looks to affect both terminals between 12Z and 16Z with increased
forcing moving over the area. A tempo group for lower VSBYS (MVFR)
and CIGS (MVFR) were included to address this. Expect CIGS to
lower below 1000 feet with -SHRA after 18Z, as additional -SHRA
move over the terminals. These IFR CIGS will likely continue into
the evening hours.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW