Helena, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

013
FXUS64 KBMX 071653
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

 - A Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms is forecast for
   Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening, with increasing
   confidence of a widespread damaging wind threat. Wind gusts of
   60 to 70mph will be the primary hazard as a line of storms
   moves across the area, with a chance for a few discrete storms
   with large hail to develop ahead of the line.

 - A level 1 to 2 chance for strong to severe storms also exists
   in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as additional clusters of
   showers and storms develops to the west/northwest and moves
   across Central Alabama. Damaging straight-line winds will be
   the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

A line of storms will sweep across the northern half of the area
this afternoon through the early evening, ahead of a boundary
expected overnight. Instabilities will be near 3500 J/kg, high PW
values around 2 inches, DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, and LI values -8 or
over. These storms are expected to be severe with damaging winds
the main threat, not only because of the storm strength, but also
with the anticipated storm motion and speed added in. Gusts could
easily reach 60 mph or higher in a few of the bowing segments.
Mid level winds in a west to northwesterly direction as the line
moves into the state will transition to a more west to slightly
southwesterly direction. This should help drive the storms in a
more easterly direction, as opposed to the line charging to the
southeast through the entire area. Thus, the higher rain chances
and greater risk will be farther north. The southern half of the
area could still expect a chance for severe weather, but more from
isolated to scattered thunderstorms that develop outside of this
line. There is a chance that line can cause outflow boundaries to
move into the area, but confidence is low on that at this time.
Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with any storms
that develop in the south and southeast.

This evening, the boundary is expected to move from north northwest
to southeast overnight, with additional convection anticipated.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the overnight activity, with a
lot of parameters depending on what the activity in the afternoon
does. If the activity moves through quickly, and allows for any
recovery, the storms overnight could easily become severe. If the
convection this afternoon and early evening slows down and lingers
with a large area of rain behind the main line, the storms
overnight may not be as strong. The storms are expected to
develop anywhere between 10 and 11 PM tonight across the northern
counties, and then move south to southeast, increasing in
strength and coverage. Instabilities will be slightly less with
2000 J/kg and DCAPE around 600-700 J/kg. Shear will actually be
higher with the nighttime activity, with 20-30 kts 0-1 km shear
and around 40 kt 0-6 km. Severe weather may be possible overnight,
with conditional wording needed in order to see what the line of
storms does in the afternoon.

Models want to show the boundary moving to the south and southeast
shortly after sunrise, though the boundary could linger slightly
over areas between I20 and I85 through mid morning. Another note
with the overnight activity, with PW values higher and the flow
more parallel to the boundary, there could be a few areas with
training storms. Though localized flooding is not widely
anticipated at this time, there could be a few issues if the
overall boundary slows its progression southward and allows those
storms to train over the same areas.

Sunday, the boundary is expected to linger over the southern part
of the area through the afternoon, with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible through the afternoon. The chances of these
thunderstorms reaching severe is slightly lower, with lower PW
values limiting coverage. There is enough instability though for
a few to each strong to severe levels, so will leave mention for
now. Though models are in are in terrific disagreement on what
will happen Sunday afternoon with any remaining boundaries and
development. Confidence may be slightly lower this afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 427 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

The active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming week.

Another round of storms is expected Monday as a shortwave moves
through the region during the afternoon and evening. This will push
another frontal boundary into Central AL, providing the forcing for
thunderstorm activity. Instability will be in the 1500-2500 J/kg
range through the afternoon and evening hours with Lapse Rates
around 7 C/Km. This will support strong to severe storms capable of
producing damaging winds and large hail.

The boundary becomes weaker Monday night into Tuesday and stalls out
across the area Tuesday through Wednesday as the main upper level
trough shifts to our east. Ridging builds in Tuesday through
Thursday, though the warm/moist airmass will support diurnal
thunderstorm activity through the end of the week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025

A line of storms will move west northwest to east southeast
through the afternoon, with timing in the TAF to reflect best TOA.
Conditions will deteriorate to LIFR or lower with this activity.
There is enough moisture in the air for any thunderstorm to
produce heavy rainfall. Behind the afternoon storms, more
convection is expected. Confidence is low on timing for now, so
left VC and prevailing conditions in TAF and can narrow down
timing when afternoon convection moves through. This activity
should move out in the early morning, with an expected break until
the end of the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of rain and thunderstorms are expected for Central
AL. Min RHs will remain well above critical values. Winds will be
gusty in proximity to thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  69  85  65 /  70  70  80  20
Anniston    87  70  83  68 /  60  60  80  30
Birmingham  89  71  84  69 /  60  60  80  30
Tuscaloosa  90  72  86  70 /  60  60  80  30
Calera      88  72  84  69 /  50  50  80  40
Auburn      89  73  84  70 /  50  40  80  50
Montgomery  91  74  87  70 /  50  40  80  60
Troy        92  73  89  69 /  50  30  70  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...24