Fairhope, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS64 KMOB 071728
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Through Sunday Night...

Opening the period with an upper ridge in place from the Gulf into
northern Mexico. On its northern periphery, an active west northwest
flow is in place over the MS River Valley. Embedded in the flow is
an organized convective complex/concentrated lightning moving
eastward over northern MS and western TN. The high resolution
convection-allowing models (CAMs) continue this feature east
southeast the remainder of the day into northern AL with an outflow
potentially sinking southeast into the northern zones this
evening. Out ahead of this feature, isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and storms initiate. There are indications that activity
will weaken this evening. Low level/surface high holds in place
across the Bahamas, westward into the Gulf. Environmental
moisture remains unchanged initially where PWAT`s range 1.6 to
1.8". The upper ridge over the Gulf and Deep South retreats to the
southwest late in the weekend as a large deep closed low pressure
system exits south central Canada and settles over the western
Great Lakes region. With the approach and passage of stronger
upper shortwave activity/ascent at the base of an evolving more
amplified upper trof, a pre-frontal surface trof of low pressure
sagging southward into the northern zones combined with PWAT`s
ticking up to around 2 inches, an increase in areal coverage is
expected in showers and storms Sunday. The short range ensembles
suggest the interior may begin to see a chance of storms coming in
from the north during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Some of the
storms could become marginally severe Sunday. Chances of showers
and storms look to remain likely into Sunday night. Rip Current
risk will remain Moderate over the weekend.

Very warm temperatures will persist. Highs Sunday 3 to 6 degrees
above normal over the central sections of the local area, ranging
from 90 to 95 degrees. This is bounded by closer to normal highs
in the upper 80`s along and north of US Hwy 84 and at the coast
and barrier islands. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) should
range from the upper 90s to as high as 105 degrees from the I-10
corridor to south of US Hwy 84. Much above normal lows tonight and
Sunday night will be in the mid 70s inland and mid/upper 70s
along the coast. These numbers are some 7 to 12 degrees above
normal. /10 /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A mostly scattered CU field expected through the afternoon with
lowest bases primarily 3 to 5 kft. SHRA/TSRA look to be the vcty
near majority of TAF sites this afternoon. Timing these are
difficult considering their isolated to widely scattered nature.
Away from any storms, a predominant west to southwest component in
the wind 8 to 12 kts expected through 08.00Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A light to moderate southwesterly flow will persist through early
next week, and there will be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity early next week. Overall, low impactful weather is
anticipated for small craft operators outside of any storms where
winds and seas will be locally higher. May have to also watch for
some isolated AM waterspouts over the weekend. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  92  74  89  73  88  73  88 /  10  50  60  80  70  90  50  80
Pensacola   79  91  77  88  75  86  76  87 /  10  50  60  80  80  90  60  80
Destin      80  90  79  87  76  86  77  87 /  20  50  60  80  80  80  60  80
Evergreen   75  93  71  89  71  86  71  89 /  10  60  60  90  80  90  50  80
Waynesboro  73  91  71  87  69  84  68  87 /  10  60  60  90  70  80  40  80
Camden      74  88  70  86  68  83  69  86 /  30  70  60  90  80  80  50  70
Crestview   75  94  72  90  71  88  71  90 /  10  60  60  90  80  90  50  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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