Chelsea, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS64 KBMX 241135
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
535 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024

Fair weather continues today as low-amplitude ridging scoots across
the region. The one aside is early morning fog along rivers and
lakes, of which could be locally dense. High temperatures will be
warmer than prior days as southerly flow kicks in, generally in the
middle to upper 60s though a few of our southern communities may
reach 70 (Highway 80 southward).

A trough will move from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio
Valley Monday into Monday night, with its front and associated
showers affecting central Alabama Monday night. During the daytime
hours, variable cloudiness, unseasonably warm temperatures reaching
the 70s, and a southwest breeze are forecast.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Uncertainties remain in terms of the strong to severe storm
  potential on Thanksgiving Day, but overall rain chances continue
  to increase. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible beginning
  Wednesday night and perhaps lingering through Thursday evening
  in southeastern counties.

- Sharply colder temperatures are expected by Friday and into next
  weekend.

A cold front will be moving into northwest Alabama around midnight
Monday night, with scattered to numerous showers developing ahead
of the front. Those showers will move southeastward toward the
I-20 corridor by 6am Tuesday morning, gradually decreasing in
coverage as the front moves farther to the southeast. Guidance is
hanging on to showers a bit longer than previous runs, and left
at least a slight chance of showers as far south as the I-85
corridor through midday Tuesday. A quick shot of cooler and drier
air will filter southward behind the front, with highs dropping
into the upper 50s for northern counties to the lower 70s in the
far southeast before the front moves through. Chilly low
temperatures return Wednesday morning ranging from the mid 30s
north to the mid 40s south. Wednesday will be an air mass
transition day, with a warm front moving northward and
southwesterly flow developing at the surface. With warm air
advection, highs should be able to range from the mid 60s north to
the lower 70s south.

Questions remain in terms of the all-important Thanksgiving Day
forecast and if a warm sector will be able to set up ahead of the
strong cold front that will sweep across the CWA. The one element
of the forecast that isn`t in question on Thanksgiving is the
fact that much of Central Alabama will be very wet at times
throughout the day. Widespread showers are expected to develop as
early as Wednesday night and increasing in coverage through the
pre-dawn hours. With a potent 700mb and 500mb westerly to
southwesterly flow and southerly flow at the surface, locally
heavy rainfall will be possible due to the synoptic setup.
Differing guidance solutions remain this morning in terms of the
strength and movement of the approaching surface low that will
also dictate the amount of low-level instability that will be
present over the Deep South. For now, have kept with the
persistence forecast of not mentioning strong to severe storms,
while continuing to increase overall rain chances. There are now
also some timing differences in terms of when the cold front will
move through the area and sweep all showers and storms off to the
east. The ECMWF is now the much faster solution, while the GFS is
weaker and slower moving the front through by about 12 hours. Due
to the differences, PoPs remain fairly high through 6pm Thursday
evening and then decreasing through the overnight hours. We should
be able to better narrow down the rainfall timing with improved
guidance consistency over the coming days.

Behind the cold front, sharply colder and drier air will filter
southward. The first true arctic airmass of the season will move
across much of the eastern CONUS through the end of the week.
We`ll catch the southern fringe of that airmass, with very chilly
daytime highs in the 40s and 50s by Friday with blustery northwest
winds. A widespread freeze could be in the cards by Saturday
morning with 20s currently advertised across northern counties.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST SUN NOV 24 2024

Fog is very pronounced on satellite imagery along rivers and lakes
early this morning. Visibility is as low as LIFR at a few
observation sites across the state as of 11z, including TCL, and
should clear by 14z. Otherwise, VFR is expected through the rest
of the TAF/12 Monday, unless MVFR ceilings arrive earlier than
currently projected. Winds will be light.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain showers will move across central Alabama Monday night,
associated with a frontal passage, though amounts are likely to
average less than 0.25 inch. Afternoon minimum RHs will remain above
critical thresholds over the next few days. 20-foot winds will be
southerly today less than 10 mph, southwest on Monday and closer to
10 mph with a few gusts near 20 mph, and northerly on Tuesday
decreasing to less than 10 mph by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  41  74  50 /   0   0  10  60
Anniston    68  46  75  54 /   0   0  10  60
Birmingham  67  49  74  52 /   0   0  10  60
Tuscaloosa  69  49  76  53 /   0   0  10  50
Calera      68  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  60
Auburn      67  47  74  58 /   0   0   0  30
Montgomery  70  48  78  60 /   0   0   0  40
Troy        70  47  76  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Lamar-Marion-Randolph-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-Shelby-Sumter-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite