Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS64 KBMX 271134
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
634 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms across
  portions of the eastern and south-central counties on Friday
  afternoon and evening due to damaging wind gust risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

Longwave ridging extends from over the Eastern Tennessee Valley
Region extending northward to over the Great Lakes Region while an
upper low was positioned over the Northern Florida Peninsula.
Surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast Atlantic
Coast while diffuse surface troughing persists across portions of
Virginia and North Carolina along with along the Western Gulf
Coast of Florida.

Today.

The upper low will continue to drift northwest, becoming
positioned to the southeast of the forecast area later today while
diffuse surface troughing will become aligned parallel to the
Appalachians from Central Virginia southwest into Central Georgia.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
areawide from midday through the afternoon while opportunities for
enhanced low-level convergence and vertical lift may be enhanced
across portions of the eastern and southern portions of the area,
overlapping where a marginal risk for some severe storms will
exist during the afternoon and evening hours due to wet microburst
potential. Higher chances for convective activity will help keep
high temperatures limited to the lower 90s and will result in heat
index values remaining below advisory criteria.

Tonight.

The upper low will gradually become more diffuse as it becomes
centered across South-Central Georgia overnight. Residual surface
troughing looks to persist to our east across the Mid Atlantic and
Atlantic Coastal States. Chances for showers and some
thunderstorms will decrease overnight as low-level stability
returns with the loss of surface heating.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

Saturday and Sunday.

The upper low continues to lose definition through the weekend as
it becomes centered across Southwest Georgia. Surface troughing
migrates east, extending from over the Mid-Atlantic States south
across the South Carolina Coast while surface high pressure from
the Southwest Atlantic noses eastward across much of Florida and
into the Wiregrass portion of the state. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be maximized from midday through the early evening
hours with scattered activity both afternoons. The lack of
organized surface and upper-level features near the area will
result in the more classic summertime disorganized convection
setup largely influenced by previous convection outflow
boundaries, differential heating gradients due to terrain features
and other mesoscale processes. Scattered convection during the
peak heating hours will help limit high temperatures to the lower
90s and keep heat index values below advisory criteria.

Monday through Tuesday.

A mid-level trough will dig southeast over the Western Great
Lakes during the on Monday and dip southward over the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley eastward to over the Ohio River Valley
during this time frame. Some mid-level disturbances are progged on
some of the available global guidance moving over the Mid-South
Region and continuing eastward to over the Southern Tennessee
Valley and northwest portions of the forecast area. Surface high
pressure will remain centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast
while the aforementioned trough will help advance a cold front
southeast across the North-Central Plains, Midwest and Ohio River
Valley Regions into the Mid-South Region by Tuesday morning.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the area
with greatest chances across the northwest counties each day.

Wednesday through Friday.

Mid-level troughing will move east, extending from over Southeast
Canada extending south over much of the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic States while mid-level ridging will build to a limited
extent over the Southern Plains. The surface front pushes further
southeast then stalls roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor
through this time frame while surface high pressure will build
across the Eastern Central Plains into much of the Ohio River
Valley. Expect unsettled conditions across the area with continued
scattered chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. Some
global guidance depicts a few impulses diving southeast toward the
area during this time from over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
and Mid-South Regions as a more northwest flow pattern develops
aloft over the local area. PoPs look to be greatest across the
northwest portion of the area, especially if this flow pattern
does materialize with some potential convective complexes
developing and moving southeast toward the area toward the end of
the work week.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025

Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours, with all
terminals returning to VFR category by 27/15z. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, with all terminals
also carrying PROB30s for TSRA. By 28/06z, MVFR CIGS and VIS will
likely return to most terminals, and remain for the rest of the
TAF period.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be prevalent
across the area this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.
Relative humidity values will remain in the 50 to 60 percent
range. High moisture content will persist along with generally
light winds outside of convection resulting in minimal fire
weather concerns through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  68  91  70 /  40  20  50  20
Anniston    90  69  89  70 /  40  20  60  20
Birmingham  90  71  90  71 /  30  20  50  20
Tuscaloosa  91  72  91  73 /  30  10  40  20
Calera      90  72  89  72 /  30  20  50  20
Auburn      90  71  89  71 /  40  30  60  20
Montgomery  92  71  91  71 /  40  20  60  20
Troy        91  69  90  70 /  40  30  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.../44/