Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS64 KBMX 230946
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
346 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

Fair weather will be in place through the weekend. Low-amplitude 500
mb ridging over the central U.S. today will move our way on Sunday
while surface ridging moves eastward across the Gulf Coast. This
will cause low-level flow to switch from northwesterly today to
southerly on Sunday and an uptick in high temperatures by 5-10
degrees between the two days.

As of 3 am Saturday, backyard stations on Wunderground and ASOS/AWOS
sites show several locations that have reached or are soon to reach
freezing; however, this is not evenly distributed across central
Alabama or at high frequency. Due to this, I suspect we may end up
needing a frost alert Sunday morning for a chunk of central Alabama,
in the absence of a widespread freeze being achieved by sunrise
(this morning). Note: Either a widespread freeze or the arrival of
November 25 is needed to declare the growing season over and an end
to frost/freeze alerts for a given area. We`ll assess the outcome of
Saturday morning`s low temperature reports and make a call during
our next update early this afternoon.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024

Key Messages:

- An unstable environment could materialize through Thanksgiving
  Day with a decent warm sector and plenty of shear. If current
  guidance trends hold, strong to severe storms may need to be
  added to the forecast. At the very least, Thanksgiving Day is
  expected to be wet and stormy for many locations.

- Sharply colder temperatures are expected by Friday and into next
  weekend.

A progressive weather pattern is expected during the period with
two systems expected to impact the Deep South. A very nice warm-up
is expected on Monday with southwesterly surface flow and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs should top out in the low to
mid 70s before a cold front moves in from the northwest Monday
night through Tuesday morning. The front will be weakening as it
moves to the south and east with the parent surface low well off
to the northeast over eastern Canada. Still, at least scattered to
numerous showers will develop as the front moves into the CWA
along and north of the I-20 corridor through Sunrise Tuesday
morning. Showers should diminish fairly quickly through the day,
with only a slight chance for a shower lingering across the I-85
corridor through midday. With the front now expected to completely
clear the area, cooler and drier air will filter in behind the
front Tuesday night with temperatures expected to range from the
mid 30s north to the lower 40s south by sunrise Wednesday.

A potent upper level shortwave originating from the significant
storm system currently over the Pacific Northwest will quickly
dive southeastward into the southern Plains by Wednesday evening.
At the same time, a surface low is expected to develop over the
ArkLaTex early Thursday morning, with a warm front lifting
northward over the Deep South. Strong westerly to southwesterly
flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will lead to the
development of widespread rains and embedded storms over much of
the Southeast on Thanksgiving Day. With guidance starting to come
into better agreement with the overall synoptic setup, rain
chances have been increased into the likely category and will most
certainly increase further if trends continue. We could see some
heavy rainfall, especially along and north of the I-20 corridor.
In addition, we`ll have to watch for the potential of a warm
sector developing Thursday afternoon and into Thursday evening as
the surface low moves across the Tennessee River Valley. With
plenty of wind shear aloft, the potential of strong to severe
storms across the southern half of the CWA may be in the cards.
We`ll see if guidance trends continue with this solution, so stay
tuned.

The cold front will quickly sweep across the region early Friday
morning, with much colder and drier air moving into the Deep
South. Highs only in the 40s and 50s are currently advertised by
Friday as a semi-arctic airmass is poised to move across much of
the eastern CONUS.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024

High pressure will build over the area Saturday with VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free weather is expected through through Monday, followed by a
pair of fronts with rain on Tuesday and Thursday. Afternoon minimum
RHs are forecast to be above critical thresholds, with some swaths
of central Alabama reaching the lower to middle 30 percent range
over the weekend. 20-foot winds will be lighter than days prior,
averaging less than 10 mph from the northwest today and south on
Sunday, then southwest and closer to 10 mph on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  32  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    60  35  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  58  37  67  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  36  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  37  67  49 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      61  38  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  63  36  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  36  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-
Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-
Perry-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Barbour-Lee-Pike-Russell.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...24