Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS64 KBMX 312308
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
608 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025

The state will be on the backside of a deep trough that is
currently over the eastern half of the US. Northwest flow will
keep drier and cooler air over the state through the rest of the
day. Conditions will be absolutely lovely with RH values in the
mid 40s to lower 50s and high temperatures a couple of degrees
below normal for this time of year in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Tonight, a surface high begins to develop over the MS River
valley, strengthening through the day on Sunday. Low and mid level
flow will slowly transition to a westerly direction, bringing a
slow increase in moisture to mainly the low levels.

A shortwave will move through the state on Sunday afternoon.
Models are in disagreement with coverage. Due to the lack of
significant (or much) moisture return on the soundings through the
rest of the profile, will leave off mention of much rainfall for
now. Models want to hold on to this drying trend, so will keep an
eye on how much moisture can make it back into the state for the
afternoon and if isolated showers can develop. Skies are expected
to be partly to mostly cloudy with that low level moisture
return, so temperatures should only be a degree or two higher on
Sunday than they would be today.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025

As the ridge builds in there are not really any targets of
opportunity to adjust the blended forecast. As we get closer we
may need to take a look at the moisture levels to see if we need
to adjust downward to indicate a drier airmass. By late next week
we will see the heat indices creep up toward the triple digits.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025

Strong height rises will occur on Monday and Tuesday as a large
ridge builds across the region. This will promote stable and sunny
conditions with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80s.
Winds will begin to shift more to the southeast by Wednesday as
the ridge begins to center over the Mid-Atlantic region where it
will remain centered through Friday. Temperatures will gradually
trend warmer during this time with many locations reaching near
90F or into the low 90s during each afternoon Wednesday through
Friday. A passing shower or thunderstorm may cool things off
towards the end of the week as a cold front moves across the
Mississippi river. However, moisture content looks to remain on
the lower end and there`s still uncertainty on how far east the
front will be able to advance given the strong presence of ridging
across the area. The ridge looks to break down towards the end of
the workweek as a mid-level trough progresses across the Midwest
and Great Lakes regions.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025

VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots prevail through
this TAF cycle. There is a low chance for some patchy fog late
tonight. However, confidence is not high enough at this time to
include in the TAF.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier west to northwest remains in place. Other than a few hit or
miss showers/storms Sunday afternoon, the forecast remains dry for
several days. Nonetheless, RH values will remain well above critical
thresholds and soils remain saturated, so there are no fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  83  59  86 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    59  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  62  83  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  84  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      62  83  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      63  83  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        61  84  62  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo