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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160745

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today,
   supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across
   California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours
   of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough
   to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated
   highlights introduced.

   Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will
   encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the
   afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching
   the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama
   into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given
   marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields.
   However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around
   afternoon peak heating.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160745

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from
   the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface
   low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow,
   followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern
   High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically
   support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels
   suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized
   at best.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather
   conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A
   cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern
   2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High
   pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly
   mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions
   suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of
   southern CA next week.

   ...Southern CA...
   Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected
   across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little
   critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. 

   Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is
   forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the
   lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude
   of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More
   aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong
   mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong
   offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could
   allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly
   D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model
   differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air
   features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at
   this time.

   ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025
      




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