ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150654
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH
AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and
Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase
in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin
today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions
of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern
Idaho.
...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona...
West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon
relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of
eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are
critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last
couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby
thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow
winds.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions
of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho,
western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions
with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations.
Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions
expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that
rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions
possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity
over last several weeks.
..Thornton.. 07/15/2025
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150655
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
A departing mid-level trough will bring continued breezy conditions
and Elevated fire weather concerns across portions of southeastern
Nevada into western Utah on Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity
reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap winds 10-15 mph in these
regions. Fuels remain critically dry with recent dry lightning and
potential for quick spread of new fires.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A broad area of dry thunderstorm activity will be possible again
from northern AZ into western CO, UT, southern WY, and portions of
eastern NV. High based thunderstorms are expected to continue to
bring little to no rainfall amid critically dry fuels. This will
support potential for new lightning ignitions.
..Thornton.. 07/15/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 142155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 221200Z
...Day 3/Wednesday...
Elevated mid-level flow south of a mid-level trough translating
eastward into the Northern Plains will contribute to breezy winds
across the southern Great Basin Day 3/Wednesday. Monsoon moisture in
place across the eastern Great Basin and Upper Colorado River Basin
and daytime destabilization over higher terrain will support
isolated afternoon thunderstorms across the this region. A dry sub
cloud layer will inhibit significant rainfall, increasing lightning
ignition efficiency over very dry fuels. Deeper monsoon moisture
across southern Arizona and New Mexico will inhibit new ignitions
under heavier rain cores.
...Day 4/Thursday...
Monsoon moisture surge makes northward progress into the Desert
Southwest aided by mid-level low over Baja California. Increasingly
deeper moisture will push the dry thunderstorm threat north of the
Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday, with the eastern Great Basin,
Utah and the Western Slope holding on to a dry boundary layer
prohibiting appreciable rainfall.
...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday...
The monsoon moisture surge, including widespread precipitable water
values of 0.75-1.00 inches, is expected to push into the
Intermountain West Day 5/Friday. Generally slow thunderstorm motions
and higher precipitation efficiency should limit new ignition
potential in this environment. Another mid-level trough and
associated strengthening mid-level flow entering the Pacific
Northwest will bring breezy and dry conditions back into central
WA/OR as well as northeastern CA and northwestern NV where
increasingly dry and receptive fuels exist. Drier conditions return
to much of the West with associated convection shunted towards the
Continental Divide over the weekend by a broad westerly flow.
..Williams.. 07/14/2025