U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051602
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 051700Z - 061200Z
...Update...
The latest high resolution model guidance suggests wind speeds may
be slightly higher just outside the bounds of the Elevated area.
Therefore, a slight modification was made to extend it east and
southward. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged for today.
Please see the previous discussion for additional details.
..Barnes.. 07/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will continue to build across the southern Rockies
through the day. A weak 700 mb jet around the northwestern periphery
of the ridge is expected to mix downward amid strong surface heating
and provide a focus for fire weather concerns across portions of the
Great Basin. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph with 5-15% RH during the
afternoon. Therefore, an Elevated highlight has been maintained
across portions of southeastern Nevada and southwestern Utah where
these atmospheric conditions overlap with dry fuels that have not
received wetting rain recently.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051854
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Update...
No changes are required for Saturday's outlook. The forecast remains
accurate. Please see the previous discussion for more information.
..Barnes.. 07/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of modest flow across will be in place across the northern
states during the day on Sunday with a weak cutoff low off the coast
of California and a ridge across much of the southwestern CONUS.
Some of the mid-level flow around the periphery of the cutoff low
may mix down to the surface across portions of the Great Basin
during the afternoon amid low RH. However, given a lack of strong
flow throughout the column across the region, any Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected to be localized and transient.
Therefore, no highlights have been added at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042122
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0422 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis...
By Day 3/Sunday, the mid-level shortwave trough responsible for
ongoing thunderstorms across the northern Rockies will move into the
northern Great Plains. Quasi-zonal flow is expected over the rest of
the northern CONUS, while subtropical ridging impacts the Southern
Plains and Southwest. Farther west off the central CA coastline, a
mid to upper-level cyclone is anticipated to meander near this
region for a couple of days and then slowly progress
north-northeastward towards northern CA by Day5/Tuesday.
...Day 5/Tuesday...
Increasing mid to low-level flow is expected to develop Day
5/Tuesday over the Great Basin region as the height gradient
tightens in association with the approaching CA cyclone. Very warm
and dry atmospheric profiles are expected for several days preceding
this feature, which will aid in even more receptive fuels being
available by this time. Extended ensemble model guidance and high
confidence in a deeply mixed boundary layer suggest there is now
enough evidence to introduce low critical probabilities for breezy
winds and low RH across eastern NV and western UT Day 5/Tuesday.
..Barnes.. 07/04/2025
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