ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 141919

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...

   ...19z Update...
   Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and
   high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the
   start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level
   east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and
   align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern
   California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds
   and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors.
   Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher
   terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day
   before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook
   for more info.

   ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with
   surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support
   a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry
   offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2
   (Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph
   sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas
   from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions
   are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical
   highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   Elevated to near critical fire-weather will remain possible over
   parts of southern CA D3/Thursday. An upper low off the CA coast will
   gradually weaken and shift eastward as offshore flow ends across
   southern CA. With the loss of strong offshore winds, fire-weather
   concerns will lessen into the weekend as the upper air pattern
   becomes more zonal. Strong high pressure and a more amplified
   pattern should redevelop early next week. This could support
   additional fire-weather concerns, though exact forecast details are
   unclear.

   ...Southern CA...
   Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish D3/Thurs morning
   as pressure gradients weaken. Winds aloft will also weaken as the
   upper low off the coast weakens and shifts eastward. Lingering
   strong gusts and low humidity may support elevated to near-critical
   conditions across the Santa Monica and Santa Ynez Mountains through
   D3/Thurs afternoon before onshore flow returns into D4/Fri.

   Fire-weather concerns will lessen through the remainder of the work
   week as onshore flow returns on the backside of the upper low.
   However, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to
   strengthen again this weekend and into early next week. Ensemble
   forecasts show increasing potential for another offshore wind event
   across southern CA D7/Mon night into D8/Tues as an arctic air mass
   intrudes the lower 48. An upper trough will deepen over the
   Southwest, potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of
   southern CA. However, confidence in the strength of any offshore
   winds is low at this time due to difference between models. No
   probabilities will be added currently, but potential exists for
   critical conditions should models continue to trend stronger with
   upper-level flow and offshore gradients.

   ..Lyons.. 01/14/2025