U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 160745 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow, followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 152147 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025
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