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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251628

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Valid 251700Z - 261200Z

   No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 06/25/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to portions of
   northwest Nevada for today with more localized concerns possible
   across parts of the Four Corners region. 

   ...Northwest Nevada...
   Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals a weakening upper trough
   across the Great Basin. This feature is expected to continue
   de-amplifying over the next 24 hours as it migrates northeast into
   the northern Plains. In its wake, increasing zonal flow over the
   northern Sierra Nevada should promote increasing downslope winds
   through the afternoon. Sustained winds in the upper teens are likely
   for a small swath of northwest NV and adjacent portions of CA and
   OR, though occasional gusts into the 20-25 mph range appear
   plausible. RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, and
   should support at least a few hours of elevated fire weather
   conditions. ERC values near the 80th percentile will also help
   support a low-end fire weather concern.

   ...Four Corners...
   The weakening and departure of the upper trough will result in
   weakening low-level winds across the southern Great Basin/Four
   Corners where fuels remain very dry per recent ERC analyses. As
   afternoon RH falls into the teens, localized areas of elevated
   conditions appear possible across northern AZ into eastern UT where
   terrain influences can support 15-20 mph winds. However, this
   potential should remain sufficiently limited to preclude highlights.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251940

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 06/25/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns should remain limited across the country on
   Thursday, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across
   portions of the Great Basin. Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to
   increase across the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin through
   the day Thursday. This will promote more expansive downslope flow
   out of the western Great Basin with widespread RH reductions into
   the low to mid teens across NV and into western UT/AZ. Despite
   widespread dry conditions and receptive fuels across much of the
   region, a modest low-level mass response will modulate surface winds
   for most locations. Some deterministic solutions hint that areas of
   15-20 mph winds are possible across northern NV into western UT and
   southern ID, but ensemble guidance shows a weak signal for sustained
   winds above 15 mph, which suggests that elevated conditions that do
   emerge will likely remain transient and/or localized.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 241947

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

   Valid 261200Z - 021200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest 
   Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying
   ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote
   lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of
   the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with
   potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry
   thunderstorms.

   ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday...
   Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote
   lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the
   Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next
   week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be
   possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River
   Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday.

   ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday...
   A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide
   and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing 
   winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific
   Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the
   trough remains too low to include probabilities.

   ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025
      




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