ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 251628
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Valid 251700Z - 261200Z
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to remain confined to portions of
northwest Nevada for today with more localized concerns possible
across parts of the Four Corners region.
...Northwest Nevada...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals a weakening upper trough
across the Great Basin. This feature is expected to continue
de-amplifying over the next 24 hours as it migrates northeast into
the northern Plains. In its wake, increasing zonal flow over the
northern Sierra Nevada should promote increasing downslope winds
through the afternoon. Sustained winds in the upper teens are likely
for a small swath of northwest NV and adjacent portions of CA and
OR, though occasional gusts into the 20-25 mph range appear
plausible. RH reductions into the teens to low 20s are expected, and
should support at least a few hours of elevated fire weather
conditions. ERC values near the 80th percentile will also help
support a low-end fire weather concern.
...Four Corners...
The weakening and departure of the upper trough will result in
weakening low-level winds across the southern Great Basin/Four
Corners where fuels remain very dry per recent ERC analyses. As
afternoon RH falls into the teens, localized areas of elevated
conditions appear possible across northern AZ into eastern UT where
terrain influences can support 15-20 mph winds. However, this
potential should remain sufficiently limited to preclude highlights.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 251940
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns should remain limited across the country on
Thursday, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across
portions of the Great Basin. Zonal mid-level flow is forecast to
increase across the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin through
the day Thursday. This will promote more expansive downslope flow
out of the western Great Basin with widespread RH reductions into
the low to mid teens across NV and into western UT/AZ. Despite
widespread dry conditions and receptive fuels across much of the
region, a modest low-level mass response will modulate surface winds
for most locations. Some deterministic solutions hint that areas of
15-20 mph winds are possible across northern NV into western UT and
southern ID, but ensemble guidance shows a weak signal for sustained
winds above 15 mph, which suggests that elevated conditions that do
emerge will likely remain transient and/or localized.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 241947
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 261200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis...
An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest
Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying
ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote
lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of
the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with
potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry
thunderstorms.
...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday...
Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote
lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the
Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next
week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be
possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River
Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday.
...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday...
A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide
and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing
winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific
Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the
trough remains too low to include probabilities.
..Thornton.. 06/24/2025