U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271659
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona
and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire
weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains,
but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status.
...Arizona/New Mexico...
A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east
towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor
imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading
northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these
features through the day will support surface pressure falls across
the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent
deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15
mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will
facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen
with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts
upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of
southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been
noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass
remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the
single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%
are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels
(ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire
weather conditions appear likely.
...Central Plains...
Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across
much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south
of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving
southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced
from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories
emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single
digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon.
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE
where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is
anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry
with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should
modulate the overall fire weather threat.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271947
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous
discussion below for more information.
..Thornton.. 01/27/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country.
The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to
gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48
hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will
overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph
by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is
forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry
low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest
wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH
thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears
limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the
strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from
the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the
Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day
of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35%
range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but
confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too
limited for highlights at this time.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272147
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the
extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western
US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains
D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also
chances for precipitation.
Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist
across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced
upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will
develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee
trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of
elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern
and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for
fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional
precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions.
..Thornton.. 01/27/2025
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