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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271659

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
   discussion for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona
   and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire
   weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains,
   but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status.

   ...Arizona/New Mexico...
   A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east
   towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor
   imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading
   northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these
   features through the day will support surface pressure falls across
   the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent
   deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15
   mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will
   facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen
   with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts
   upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of
   southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been
   noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass
   remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the
   single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20%
   are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels
   (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire
   weather conditions appear likely.

   ...Central Plains...
   Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across
   much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south
   of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving
   southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced
   from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories
   emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single
   digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon.
   Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE
   where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is
   anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry
   with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should
   modulate the overall fire weather threat.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271947

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather outlook. See previous
   discussion below for more information.

   ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns appear limited for Tuesday across the country.
   The upper low currently over southern California is forecast to
   gradually shift east across the southwest states over the next 48
   hours. As this occurs, moderately strong mid-level winds will
   overspread much of NM, which will support breezy winds around 15 mph
   by late afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that is
   forecast to reside across the central portion of the state. Dry
   low-level air emanating out of northern Mexico combined with modest
   wind speeds may allow some areas to reach elevated wind/RH
   thresholds, but the coverage and duration of such conditions appears
   limited compared to prior days. Additionally, the axis of the
   strongest winds/lowest RH will become increasingly displaced from
   the driest fuels located across AZ and far western NM. Across the
   Plains, a strong surface pressure gradient will support another day
   of 15-20 mph winds with afternoon RH values falling into the 20-35%
   range. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but
   confidence in widespread or persistent elevated conditions is too
   limited for highlights at this time.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 272147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the
   extended forecast. An upper-low that has remained over the western
   US will eject across the southern Rockies into the Plains
   D3/Wednesday through D4/Thursday, bringing windy conditions but also
   chances for precipitation.

   Towards the weekend, potential for windy/dry conditions will exist
   across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains as enhanced
   upper-level flow moves across the Rockies. A surface cyclone will
   develop across the southern Plains, with strengthening of a lee
   trough across the High Plains. This pattern will favor periods of
   elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern
   and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for
   fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional
   precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions.

   ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025
      




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