U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 160745
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Baja Peninsula today,
supporting a weakening of the surface pressure gradient across
California during through the afternoon. During the first few hours
of the morning though, residual offshore flow may be strong enough
to foster localized wildfire-spread potential, with Elevated
highlights introduced.
Farther east, a mid-level trough ejecting into the Atlantic will
encourage surface lee troughing over the eastern U.S. During the
afternoon, sustained west-southwesterly surface winds approaching
the 10-15 mph range amid 30-40 percent RH may overspread Alabama
into the Carolinas. Elevated highlights have been withheld given
marginally dry fuels and relatively weak surface wind fields.
However, localized wildfire-spread potential may exist by around
afternoon peak heating.
..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 160745
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Lower MS Valley from
the southern Rockies area tomorrow (Friday), resulting in surface
low development over the southern Plains. Dry downslope flow,
followed by a surface cold front, will foster 20-30 mph sustained
westerly surface winds and RH down to 20 percent across the southern
High Plains Friday afternoon. While these conditions typically
support at least Elevated highlights, the lack of receptive fuels
suggests that any wildfire-spread potential should remain localized
at best.
..Squitieri.. 01/16/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152147
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather
conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A
cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern
2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High
pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly
mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions
suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of
southern CA next week.
...Southern CA...
Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected
across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little
critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend.
Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is
forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the
lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude
of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More
aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong
mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong
offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could
allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly
D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model
differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air
features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at
this time.
..Lyons.. 01/15/2025
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