U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 230653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis...
A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the
western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the
Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level
impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the
southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow
developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a
low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface
winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for
wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are
dry/unaffected by recent rainfall.
Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts
of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph
sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH
atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 230658
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while
generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS
tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are
possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest
guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across
Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated
highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly
winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across
western portions of the Florida Peninsula.
..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 222153
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 301200Z
Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a
broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued
lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest
and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather
potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor
dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially
critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended
forecast period.
...Southwest and Great Basin...
As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and
breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High
Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels,
fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into
the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected
each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher
probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future
outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently
appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main
trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and
intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This
suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this
time.
Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy
conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels
have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are
likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for
elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible,
uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of
probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve.
...Southeastern US...
Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to
the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next
week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the
Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively
low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought
and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat
into the weekend.
..Lyons.. 04/22/2025
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