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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230653

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the
   western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the
   Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level
   impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the
   southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow
   developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a
   low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface
   winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for
   wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are
   dry/unaffected by recent rainfall.

   Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts
   of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph
   sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH
   atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 230658

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while
   generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS
   tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are
   possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest
   guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across
   Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated
   highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly
   winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across
   western portions of the Florida Peninsula.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   Mid-level flow is forecast to gradually intensify and amplify as a
   broad upper trough moves into the western US this weekend. Continued
   lee troughing will favor dry downslope winds across the Southwest
   and Great Basin with a corresponding increase in fire-weather
   potential. At the same time, ridging over the Southeast will favor
   dry conditions and continued drought. Elevated to potentially
   critical fire-weather conditions are likely through the extended
   forecast period.

   ...Southwest and Great Basin...
   As southwesterly flow aloft increases, several days of dry and
   breezy conditions are likely across the Southwest and southern High
   Plains. While some rain has temporarily limited available fuels,
   fire-weather concerns will return as dry conditions settle back into
   the region. At least Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected
   each day across portions of AZ and NM through the weekend. Higher
   probabilities for critical conditions are likely needed in future
   outlooks, as forecast guidance continues to converge. This currently
   appears to be across parts of southern NM this weekend as the main
   trough ejects. However, model guidance varies largely on timing and
   intensity of the upper trough and returning surface moisture. This
   suggests limited predictability for higher probabilities at this
   time.

   Across the southern Great Basin, several days of dry and breezy
   conditions are likely late this week and into next week. Area fuels
   have shown a response to drying over the past several days, and are
   likely to dry further through the period. While some threat for
   elevated to low-end critical fire-weather conditions is possible,
   uncertainty remains rather large. This will preclude the addition of
   probabilities for now, but some fire-weather threat may evolve.

   ...Southeastern US...
   Fire weather concerns will remain across FL as a subtropical high to
   the east support relatively dry easterly winds through early next
   week. Marine influence will mitigate fire-weather concerns along the
   Atlantic Coast, but central and western Florida could see relatively
   low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent. Persistent drought
   and dry fuels will promote at least Elevated fire-weather threat 
   into the weekend.

   ..Lyons.. 04/22/2025
      




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