South Lake Tahoe, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Discussion - Wx Hazards - Wx Special Statements

Weather Forecast Discussion

738
FXUS65 KREV 010739
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1239 AM PDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Above normal temperatures persist across the region with
   widespread minor to locally moderate HeatRisk today.

*  Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again this
   afternoon into evening, primarily for the Tahoe Basin and
   western NV.

*  A minor cooldown begins tomorrow through the holiday, with
   daily afternoon precipitation chances in the region through at
   least Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* For today, the upper level low currently off the central CA
  coast will slowly track east into central CA. There is a broad
  area of upper divergent flow, which will help aid in shower and
  T-storm development. The best chances for showers today (20-40%)
  will be in Lassen, Surprise Valley, and northern Washoe County.
  The Tahoe Basin generally north of Mono County as well as the
  Reno-Carson-Minden area will have around 15-25% chance for
  showers and storms, with 5-15% chances elsewhere. With the
  current environment, these storms have the potential for erratic
  gusts up to 50 mph and plenty of lightning. Locally heavy rain
  is possible inside the cores of thunderstorms, but storm motion
  is high enough to curtail flash flooding chances. Temperatures
  will cool off a few degrees compared to Monday and end up 2-4
  degrees above average, but moderate HeatRisk is still expected
  in the inner basins with temperatures in the upper 90s.

* Shower and storm chances continue for Wednesday as the
  aforementioned low continues to track into the central Sierra.
  With the upper level support and instability, showers and
  storms will once again form in the afternoon and evening. The
  chance for precipitation (15-25%) will become widespread across
  the eastern Sierra and much of western NV. Temperatures start to
  cool down more on Wednesday, with just minor HeatRisk and near
  average temperatures.

* For Thursday into July 4th another upper trough moves through
  the area. The best chances (15-25%) for precipitation are mostly
  for northeast CA and northwest NV on Thursday. There is an
  uptick in gusty west winds on Thursday and again on Friday with
  the passage of the trough. This will lead to possible recreation
  concerns on local lakes. See the Fire Weather section below for
  more details on fire weather impacts. Temperatures will drop
  below seasonal averages for the holiday weekend, with mostly
  mid-80s to near 90 in western NV and 70s in the eastern Sierra
  communities on the 4th, with dry conditions for the weekend.
  -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* Gusty westerly winds of 20-25 kts for W.NV terminals and
  15-20kts for eastern Sierra terminals from 21z-03z.

* For terminals across western Nevada, high-density altitudes may
  arise this afternoon, especially for KLOL/KNFL.

* For KSVE/KTRK/KTVL, a 15-25% chance of afternoon showers exists
  today and widespread for all area terminals on Wednesday. Any
  shower may have the potential to produce gusty and erratic
  outflows up to 50+ kts in it`s vicinity. Otherwise, VFR
  conditions prevail. -McKellar

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Isolated hybrid storms today will produce lightning and strong,
  erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. The best chances
  (20-40%) will be in Lassen, the Surprise Valley, and northern
  Washoe County. The Tahoe Basin generally north of Mono County as
  well as the Reno-Carson-Minden area will have around 15-25%
  chance for showers and storms, with 5-15% chances elsewhere.

* Shower and storm chances expand across much of the region on
  Wednesday. Once again, storms may produce lightning and strong,
  erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph. Locally heavy
  rainfall is possible inside storm cores.

* Brief 1-3 hour periods of localized critical conditions, mostly
  for western NV and inner-basin, by mid-week as breezy and dry
  conditions return. These dry conditions persist into the holiday
  weekend. -McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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